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海上石油勘探2020年前景展望

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原标题:海上石油勘探2020年前景展望

中国石化新闻网讯 据钻机地带12月27日消息称,海上钻探活动一直处于低迷状态,但随着活动的增加,石油产量可能在2020年达到峰值,然后与页岩油一样放缓,这可能会极大地改写市场供应预测。根据IHS的预测,钻机的总体需求将从2019年的473台增加到2021年的550台,增长16%。Transocean副总裁Jeremy Lake证实,今年上半年活跃的浮动钻井平台增加了6%,并预测市场利用率将超过80%。Lake还预计,自升式钻井平台的需求将从2019年的345台增加到2021年的388台,浮动平台的数量将从69台增至84台,并且钻井船的数量将从59艘增至78艘。

人们对海上钻探的兴趣日益浓厚,这在很大程度上要归功于该行业成功地将成本降低了30%至40%,并提高了生产率。Transocean副总裁Brad Alexander表示:“我们可能已经看到,在墨西哥湾和世界各地作业的一些高规格钻井平台的性能有了大约30%的改进。”

海上钻井平台市场由自升式平台、浮式平台、半潜式平台和钻井船四部分组成。

在欧洲和远东地区,未来两年对自升式起重平台的需求可能会趋于平稳随着北海地区活动的增加,自升式平台的数量将增加1台,到30台。相比之下,远东地区的需求预计将下降3台,至43台在北美,需求不太可能发生太大变化,总体需求在10至11台之间波动。同样,南美对自升式平台的需求预计仍将停滞不前,未来两年将在2至4台之间波动。

在南美,特别是圭亚那苏里南盆地,预测者预计到2021年至少有5艘浮式平台为埃克森美孚工作。在巴西,巴西国家石油公司将替换其退役的浮式平台。然而,随着外国石油和天然气公司进入巴西的海上盐下地区,半潜式钻井平台的数量可能会大幅增加,从原来的4台增加到2021年的10台。同样,对钻井船的需求可能会上升,从今年的14艘增加到至少23艘,这取决于巴西未来几轮许可的成功。

在西非海岸作业的钻井船数量可能从今年的11艘增加到2021年的16艘,同时钻井船数量可能从11艘增加到至少16艘。至于半潜式平台市场,预测人士预计它将保持平稳,但道达尔最近在加纳近海的南非斯普林菲尔德近海发现的Brulpadda可能会带来新的潜在工作。

在非洲其他地方,安哥拉、尼日利亚、加纳、塞内加尔和毛里塔尼亚等国海域的长期开发计划将于2020年底开始。

在墨西哥湾,随着即将进行的勘探钻探,浮式平台的数量可能会增加。在在特立尼达水域的其他地方,预计在未来几年内将使用两艘浮式钻井船和两艘钻井船。然而,在实践中,对钻机的需求将取决于新勘探活动的成功。

业界的共识是,除非海上钻井平台的生产成本进一步下降,否则对海上钻井平台的需求不会出现重大改善。

曹海斌 摘译自 钻机地带

原文如下:

Offshore Drilling Poised for an Upswing in 2020?

Offshore drilling has been depressed but, now with increased activity, oil production could peak in 2020 before joining shale in a slowdown that could dramatically rewrite market supply predictions. Overall rig demand is forecast to rise from 473 units in 2019 to 550 units in 2021, an increase of 16 percent according to IHS forecasts. Jeremy Lake, Vice President, Transocean, confirms the 6 percent rise in active floating rigs in the first half of this year and forecasts a market utilization rate above 80 percent. Lake also expects demand for jack-up rigs to increase from 345 units in 2019 to 388 units in 2021, a rise from 69 to 84 floaters and the number of drillships to increase from 59 to 78.

Increasing interest in offshore drilling owes much to industry’s success in reducing costs by between 30 and 40 percent and increasing productivity. “We’ve probably seen an incremental improvement of about 30 percent on some of our high-spec rigs operating in the Gulf of Mexico and around the world,” states Brad Alexander, Vice President of Transocean.

The Offshore rig market comprises four segments namely, jack-ups, floaters, semisubmersible platforms and drill ships.

In Europe and the Far East demand for jack ups is likely to plateau over the next two years. An uptick of activity in the North Sea is expected to see the number of jack-ups climb by one to 30. In contrast, demand in the Far East is expected to fall by 3 units to 43. In North America, demand is unlikely to change much, with overall demand fluctuating between 10 and 11 units. Likewise, South America’s demand for jack-ups is expected to remain stagnant, fluctuating between two and four units in the next two years.

In South America, especially in the Guiana Suriname Basin, forecasters expect at least five floaters to be working for Exxon Mobil by 2021. In Brazil, Petrobras is replacing the floaters it retired. However, the arrival of foreign oil and gas companies to Brazil’s offshore pre-salt areas could support a substantial increase in semi-submersible platforms from 4 to at least 10 in 2021. Likewise, demand for drill ships could rise, from the 14 units this year to at least 23 units, depending on the success of Brazil’s future licensing rounds.

The number of drillships operating off the coast of West Africa could increase from 11 this year to 16 by 2021 and the number of drill ships could raise from 11 to at least 16 in the same period. As for the semi-submersible platforms market, forecasters expect it to remain flat but there could be new potential work arising from Total’s recent Brulpadda discovery off South Africa Springfield find off Ghana.

Elsewhere in Africa, long-term developments are scheduled to begin at the end of 2020 in the waters off Angola, Nigeria, Ghana, Senegal and Mauritania.

In the Gulf of Mexico, the number of floaters could rise with forthcoming exploratory drilling. Elsewhere, in Trinidadian waters, two floaters and two drill ships are expected to be used in upcoming years. However, in practice, the demand for rigs will depend on the success of new exploration campaigns.

The industry consensus is that unless offshore production costs fall further, a major improvement in demand for offshore rigs is off the table.

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