来源：伯虎财经 作者：梦得
奈雪的茶终于放下身段。
7月20日，奈雪的茶官宣开启事业合伙人计划，也就是说，奈雪的茶顶不住压力，开放加盟了，官宣当天，奈雪的茶股价上涨10.46%。
过去，这家“新式茶饮第一股”几乎能算作星巴克模式最忠实的信徒——坚持大店，坚持直营。奈雪的茶官方帐号和创始人曾多次公开表示不会开放加盟，在此之前，它也是在茶饮行业TOP20规模门店里，唯一走直营路线的品牌。
但和星巴克不同的是，上市以后，奈雪的茶的亏损持续扩大。据其财报显示，从2018年到2022年，奈雪的茶的茶的年内亏损分别为6972.9万元、3968万元、2.03亿元、45.26亿元、4.76亿元。
现在新式茶饮市场也不像过去那样火热，根据艾瑞咨询预测，2023年-2025年，新茶饮行业的市场规模增速分别为13.4%、6.4%、5.7%。与此同时，行业竞争却在加剧，除了下沉王者蜜雪冰城外，以茶百道、古茗为首的二线新茶饮品牌率先开启“万店计划”。
继降价后，奈雪的茶还是选择了开放加盟这条路。不过，开放加盟后，奈雪的茶就能改变连续多年亏损的现状吗？
有保留的加盟
加盟带来的好处很明显，既能加速门店扩张速度，也能多一项收入——加盟费。
前者的必要性在于规模。2022年新茶饮已开始步入行业发展成熟期，但下沉仍有空间。因此，扩大门店规模，扩大品牌影响力，以此来争夺更多的市场份额成为了新茶饮玩家们共同的选择。
这里笔者插入一个小故事，2017年9月29日，星巴克中国推出了新品““馥芮白”，一举带红了“澳白”这一咖啡品类。可早在一年半之前，友商COAST咖啡就上市了这款“澳白”咖啡，取名为“醇艺白”，且作为核心咖啡。那为什么是后来者星巴克把“澳白”带火了呢？一个很重要的原因是，在中国，星巴克有超1500家门店，COAST咖啡门店大概只有1/3。
（图源：网络）
据窄门餐眼数据报道，今年3-5月，喜茶在3个月内就新增了278家门店，大多集中在三四五线城市。二线新茶饮品牌比如古茗、茶百道均已经来到六七千家门店的规模，并把今年的目标定在了万店。
从这个方面来说，开放加盟已经刻不容缓。
直营是个重资产的事情，在扩张上很难和加盟比，目前，奈雪的茶旗下共有超1200家门店，其中九成的门店都分布在一线、新一线、二线城市，下沉市场非常有限。仔细观察会发现，此次奈雪的茶开放加盟的城市选址大多是三线及三线以下城市。
后者的逻辑则在于，加盟的生意和直营完全不同，直营靠的是用户，加盟挣得却是加盟商和供应链的钱。靠着完善的运营体系和供应链，蜜雪冰城的盈利能力强的让同行眼红，从2019年至2021年，蜜雪冰城的净利润分别为4.42亿元、6.31亿元、19.12亿元。
在这种情况下，开放加盟赚取巨额的加盟费用，是一个可以快速赚钱的方式。
不过从加盟奈雪的茶的要求、投资预算以及合作流程，可以感受到奈雪的茶对开放加盟的谨慎。
首先是加盟费用。奈雪的茶单店合作需要150万以上的流动资金资产证明，区域合作则需要450万以上。在投资预算上合计将近100万，其中包括品牌合作费、开业综合服务费、培训费、保证金、设备及道具、装修费、首次配货费。另外营运服务费则根据营业额满6万实收抽取1%。相比之下，去年开放加盟的喜茶，其单店投资预算在40.8万，连奈雪的茶的二分之一都不到。
其次是门店规模，相比较于同行们更强调坪效，奈雪的茶目前开放加盟的店型要求面积在90-170平，同为一线品牌的喜茶最低要求仅为50平。
在人员要求上，奈雪的茶要求单店合伙人验资门槛150万元及以上，拥有两年以上餐饮行业经营管理经验，区域合伙人则需450万元及以上验资资金，拥有3年以上同时3家门店以上的运营管理经验。
这也不难理解。虽然当前新茶饮玩家们在产品和价位上区隔不大，但是品牌效应确实存在。前段时间，喜茶下沉小县城还引起了社交网络的讨论，有网友表示，喜茶不是以前的喜茶了。
同时开放加盟也意味着服务和品控的挑战更大。有行业人士表示，奈雪的茶的加盟政策较为严苛，对于门店面积和资金门槛的要求都较高，有利于把控品质和维持中高端的定位。
加盟能让奈雪的茶打个翻身仗吗？
盈利一直是新茶饮玩家为人诟病的原因。顶着“流血上市”的帽子，过去数年奈雪的茶并没有交出足够让股东信服的业绩。
奈雪的茶也做了许多尝试。奈雪的茶此前的问题在于大店模式下，人力成本和租金太高。比如在标准店设置中央厨房，雇佣烘焙的厨师以及相关服务人员，面积通常在180-350平方米之间。这种模式对应的是第三空间和下午茶需求。
但和早餐等场景相比，下午茶有些低频。据2022年财报显示，与茶饮几乎平摊成本的烘焙产品，其营收却只占到门店总营收的20％左右。
（图源：网络）
因此奈雪的茶开发了更加轻量级的Pro店型，相比较于普通大店，Pro店的面积更小，更集中于写字楼、社区等高密度的地区；取消了现制烘焙区，由冷冻烘焙代替；同时容纳了更多高频需求，比如早餐等。根据国泰君安的研报，Pro店的坪效明显高于标准店。
今年，奈雪的茶也主动调低了产品单价。
根据伯虎财经对各品牌小程序的统计，今年一月和三月，奈雪的茶两次下调了单品价格，14至25元成其主力价格区间。喜茶的主力价位在调整后也位于15-23元之间。这个价格带和茶颜悦色的13-22元以及茶百道的8-21元已经没有区别。
据中国烹饪协会联合多家机构共同发布《2021年中国新式茶饮行业研究报告》显示，以定价为区分，价格在10-20元的中端品牌，比如茶百道、茶颜悦色、古茗等，占据近50%的市场份额。在性价比消费当道的现在，降低单价显然也有利于订单的增长。
那么，开放加盟会是奈雪的茶开启绝地反击的那一步棋吗？伯虎财经认为，目前还很难说。
奈雪的茶对于加盟的高要求虽然有利于维持住自己的品牌力，但可能会把部分加盟商拒之门外，不利于奈雪的茶的快速下沉策略。对于加盟商而言，能否挣到钱是他们选择的重点，奈雪的茶和加盟商实际上是一个双向选择的关系。
一方面，在全员下沉的新茶饮市场，加盟商们并不缺少选择，近期大火的咖啡玩家也在积极进军三四线城市；另一方面，除了多年来积累下来的品牌势能，奈雪的茶在产品上并无明显的竞争壁垒，考虑到竞争愈发激烈，更高的投入意味着更大的回本压力。
此外，当前无论是喜茶还是奈雪的茶，都倾向于既挣加盟的钱，也要保留高端品牌的体面，而到底如何运营，仍处于探索当中。有业内人士表示，奈雪的茶需建立有效的监管和支持体系，使加盟店的运营和管理符合品牌标准，并提供必要的支持和培训，实现共同盈利。奈雪的茶还需要关注成本控制和盈利模型，避免过度扩张而导致亏损。
因此，加盟固然是奈雪的茶当下的最佳之选，但无论是模式的探索，还是供应链的深耕，都需要时间去验证，还远没到下结论的时候。
编辑/lambor
Source: Bohu Finance Author: Dream
Nayuki's tea finally let go of her body.
On July 20, Nai Xue's tea official announced the launch of a business partnership plan. In other words, Nai Xue's Tea House couldn't stop being pressured and opened to join. On the day of the official announcement, Nai Xue's tea stock price rose 10.46%.
In the past, this “first brand of new-style tea” could almost be counted as the most loyal follower of the Starbucks model — they insisted on big stores and insisted on direct management. The official account and founder of Naxue's tea have publicly stated many times that they will not be open to membership.Prior to that, it was also the only brand in the top 20 stores in the tea industry that followed a direct management route.
However, unlike Starbucks, Nai Xue's tea losses continued to expand after going public. According to its financial report, from 2018 to 2022, Nai Xue's tea's losses during the year were 697.29 million yuan, 39.68 million yuan, 203 million yuan, 4,526 million yuan, and 476 million yuan respectively.
Currently, the new-style tea market is not as hot as it used to be. According to iResearch's forecast, from 2023 to 2025, the market size growth rates of the new tea industry will be 13.4%, 6.4%, and 5.7%, respectively. Meanwhile, competition in the industry is intensifying. Apart from Sinking Wangzhe Mi Xue Ice City, second-tier new tea brands, led by Cha Baidao and Gu Ming, are the first to launch the “Ten Thousand Store Plan.”
Following the price cut, Nai Xue's tea chose the path of opening up the franchise. However, after opening the franchise, can Nai Xue's tea change the current situation where it has been losing money for many years in a row?
Reserved accession
The benefits of joining are obvious. They can not only accelerate store expansion, but also generate one more revenue — franchise fees.
The need for the former lies in scale. New tea drinks in 2022 have begun to mature in the development of the industry, but there is still room for decline. Therefore, expanding store size and brand influence to compete for more market share has become a common choice for new tea players.
I'm inserting a short story here. On September 29, 2017, Starbucks China launched a new product, “Frey White,” which made the coffee category “Australian White” popular in one fell swoop. However, as early as a year and a half ago, Youshang COAST Coffee launched this “Australian White” coffee, named “Moury White,” as the core coffee. So why did the latecomer Starbucks bring popularity to “Australia and White”? One very important reason is that in China, Starbucks has over 1,500 stores, and COAST coffee stores are only about 1/3.
According to the Narrow Gate Food Eye data report, in March-May of this year, Hi Cha added 278 new stores within 3 months, mostly in Tier 3, 4, and 5 cities. New second-tier tea brands, such as Guming and Cha Baidao, have all reached the scale of 67,000 stores and set a target of 10,000 stores for this year.
From this point of view, there is no time to delay opening up the franchise.
Direct management is an asset-heavy business, and it is difficult to compare it to a franchise in terms of expansion. Currently, Nai Xue's tea has more than 1,200 stores. Ninety percent of these stores are distributed in first-tier, new first-tier, and second-tier cities, so the sinking market is very limited. A closer look reveals that most of the cities selected to join Naxue's tea opening this time are third-tier cities and below the third-tier cities.
The latter logic lies in the fact that a franchise business is completely different from direct management. Direct management relies on users, while franchise earns money from the franchisee and supply chain. Relying on a perfect operating system and supply chain, Michelle Ice City's strong profitability has dazzled peers. From 2019 to 2021, Michelle Ice City's net profit was 442 million yuan, 631 million yuan, and 1,912 million yuan respectively.
Under these circumstances, opening up a franchise to earn huge franchise fees is a way to make money quickly.
However, from the requirements, investment budget, and cooperation process to join Nai Xue Tea, you can feel that Nai Xue Tea is cautious about opening up to franchise.
The first is the franchise fee. Naxue's tea shop cooperation requires more than 1.5 million proof of working capital assets, while regional cooperation requires more than 4.5 million yuan.The total investment budget is close to 1 million,This includes brand cooperation fees, comprehensive start-up service fees, training fees, security deposits, equipment and props, decoration fees, and initial delivery fees. In addition, 1% of the operating service fee is deducted based on actual charges over 60,000 in turnover. In contrast, Hi Cha, which opened a franchise last year, has a single store investment budget of 408,000, less than one-half of Nai Xue's tea.
The second is store size. Compared to peers, which place more emphasis on flatness, Naixue's tea currently requires an area of 90-170 square meters for franchise stores, while the minimum requirement for Hi Cha, which is also a first-tier brand, is only 50 square meters.
In terms of personnel requirements, Nai Xue's tea requires a capital inspection threshold of 1.5 million yuan or more for a single store partner with at least two years of management experience in the catering industry, while regional partners require 4.5 million yuan or more in capital inspection capital and at least 3 years of experience in the operation and management of 3 or more stores at the same time.
It's also not hard to understand. Although there is currently not much of a gap between new tea players in terms of product and price, the brand effect does exist. Some time ago, the sinking of Hi Cha into a small county also sparked discussion on social networks. Some netizens said that Hi Cha is not what it used to be.
At the same time, opening up franchise also means greater challenges in service and quality control. Some people in the industry said that Nai Xue Tea's franchise policy is strict, and the requirements for store space and funding thresholds are high, which is conducive to controlling quality and maintaining the middle and high-end position.
Can joining Nai Xue's tea turn the tables?
Profit has always been the reason new tea players are criticized. Under the banner of a “bloody listing,” Nai Xue's tea has not handed over enough performance over the past few years to convince shareholders.
Nayxue's tea has also tried many things. The previous problem with Nai Xue's tea was that under the big store model, labor costs and rent were too high. For example, standard stores set up a central kitchen and hire baking chefs and related service staff. The area is usually between 180-350 square meters. This model corresponds to the need for a third space and afternoon tea.
However, compared to scenes such as breakfast, afternoon tea is somewhat low-frequency. According to the 2022 financial report, bakery products that share almost the same cost as tea only account for about 20% of the total revenue of stores.
Therefore, Nai Xue's tea has developed a more lightweight Pro store type. Compared to ordinary big stores, Pro stores have a smaller area and are more concentrated in high-density areas such as office buildings and communities; existing baking areas have been abolished and replaced by frozen baking; and at the same time, they have accommodated more high-frequency demand, such as breakfast, etc. According to Guotai Junan's research report, Pro stores have significantly higher performance than standard stores.
This year, Nai Xue's tea also took the initiative to lower the unit price of the product.
According to Bohu Finance's statistics on various brand mini-programs, in January and March of this year, Nai Xue's tea lowered the price of a single product twice, with 14 to 25 yuan being its main price range. The main price of Hi Cha is also in the range of 15-23 yuan after the adjustment. This price band is no different from the 13-22 yuan for the pleasing color of tea and the 8-21 yuan for Baidao tea.
According to the “2021 China New Style Tea Industry Research Report” jointly released by the China Culinary Association and various organizations, mid-tier brands with prices of 10-20 yuan, such as Cha Baidao, Cha Wan Yuesai, and Guming, account for nearly 50% of the market share. Now that cost effective consumption is the rule, lowering the unit price is clearly also beneficial to the growth of orders.
So, is the Open Franchise Tournament the first step in Nai Xue's fight against the Jedi? According to Bohu Finance, it's still hard to say at the moment.
Although Nai Xue's high requirements for joining are beneficial to maintaining its brand power, it may shut out some franchisees, which is not conducive to Nai Xue's rapid decline strategy. As far as franchisees are concerned, whether they can make money is the focus of their choices; Nai Xue's tea is actually a two-way choice relationship with franchisees.
On the one hand, there is no shortage of choices among franchisees in the new tea market, which has been popular recently, and coffee players that have been popular recently are also actively entering third- and fourth-tier cities; on the other hand, apart from the brand power they have accumulated over the years, Naxue tea has no obvious competitive barriers in terms of products. Considering that competition is becoming more intense, higher investment means greater return pressure.
Furthermore, currently, whether it's Hi Cha or Nai Xue's tea, they tend to not only earn money to join but also maintain the decency of high-end brands, yet the exact way to operate them is still being explored. Some industry insiders said that Naxue Tea needs to establish an effective supervision and support system to make the operation and management of franchise stores meet brand standards, and provide necessary support and training to achieve common profits. Naxue's tea also needs to focus on cost control and profit models to avoid losses caused by excessive expansion.
Therefore, joining Nai Xue is certainly the best choice for Nai Xue's tea right now, but whether it's exploring the model or deepening the supply chain, it will take time to verify it, and it's far from time to reach a conclusion.
edit/lambor
