来源：高瑞东宏观笔记
作者：高瑞东 查惠俐
引言：该系列报告以买方机构的公开发言为依据，以时间维度进行纵向比较，以机构维度进行横向比较，着眼于市场焦点和分歧所在。
核心观点
宏观经济：弱复苏是共识，重点关注地产。
当前买方机构普遍认为，今年经济总体将持续推进复苏，但复苏弹性不会太强，后续需持续观察盈利修复的兑现情况。具体来看，买方对于地产恢复情况尤其关注。富国基金在2月12日表示，“今年经济复苏最大的预期差在地产复苏。若地产复苏不及预期，市场对‘两会’的政策期待或更高”。
A股：总体看上，买方机构对A股市场看法积极乐观
多数买方机构仍看好A股后市行情，部分机构认为指数回调有限。展望后市，机构普遍认为随高频数据持续验证经济恢复，A股有望延续修复行情。景顺长城（2月6日）认为，目前企业的盈利预测仍然偏保守，未来存在上修的空间。
港股：多数买方机构表示“中期看多”，但估值存在分歧
港股近期出现一轮调整，但买方机构普遍认为，当前港股回调是市场对“国内经济复苏、海外通胀压力缓解”抢跑的一种预期修正，预期修正后，港股会持续受益于美联储加息进入后半程，以及国内经济恢复的双重逻辑。不过，市场针对港股估值出现分歧，南方基金和泰康基金认为当前港股估值的性价比减弱；但上投摩根认为，由于过去两年的持续调整，港股估值仍处于低位。
债市：看法普遍偏谨慎，部分买方机构认为债市偏“逆风”
机构对于国内债市普遍偏谨慎，短期偏中性，中长端中性偏空。主要考量有三点，一是，在经济复苏周期中，债券收益率存在一定上行风险；二是，地产行业后续复苏情况存在变数；三是，临近两会，需警惕政策对预期的影响。
海外宏观：降息或晚于市场预期，美国下半年进入温和“衰退”
非农、消费数据超预期指向美国经济韧性十足，多家机构表示降息的时点可能比市场预期得要晚。目前买方机构普遍认为“衰退”时点延后，可能会在今年下半年进入“衰退”。但从当前经济状况看，最大的可能性是温和衰退。
美股：尚未对衰退计价，企业盈利存在下调风险
国内外买方机构对美股走势普遍偏悲观，多数机构认为，当前美国股市尚未对衰退计价。估值方面，买方机构认为美股当前位置并不低，但也无需过于悲观；但从企业盈利看，买方机构普遍认为企业盈利存在下调风险。
美债：利率短期有上行压力，中长期趋势依然向下
短期来看，韧性较强的非农、通胀数据及美联储鹰派表态或使美债收益率向上波动。全年维度来看，多数买方机构认为，加息周期临近尾声，通胀已在放缓，美国经济或于后半年陷入衰退，美债利率的中期趋势仍然向下。
风险提示：海外通胀超预期，国内政策落地不及预期。
节选
经济：弱复苏是共识，重点关注地产
当前买方机构普遍认为，今年经济总体呈现弱复苏。广发基金在2月12日表示，2023年经济整体呈现复苏但复苏弹性不会太强，南方基金于2月8日表示，经济复苏目前呈现“强预期与弱现实”态势，景顺长城在2月6日表示，当前经济复苏能见度提升，后续需持续观察盈利修复的兑现情况。
具体来看，买方对于地产恢复情况尤其关注。富国基金在2月12日表示：“今年经济复苏最大的预期差在地产复苏。若地产复苏不及预期，市场对‘两会’的政策期待或更高”。
港股：大部分机构中期看多
港股在岁末年初快速反弹后，近期出现一轮调整，但对后市观点，买方机构表态普遍乐观，对港股“中期看多”。广发基金（2月12日）认为港股回调的原因是市场对“国内经济复苏、海外通胀压力缓解”抢跑的一种预期修正，在过度乐观的预期出现修正后港股仍有继续表现的可能。展望后市，买方机构普遍认为支撑港股有两条主线：一是美联储的加息周期进入后半程，二是持续受益于国内经济修复和企业盈利改善。
但市场针对估值出现分歧，南方基金和泰康基金认为，当前港股估值的性价比减弱；但上投摩根认为，由于过去两年的持续调整，港股估值仍处于低位。
美股：尚未计价衰退，企业盈利存在下调风险
国内外买方机构对美股担忧集中于公司盈利下调风险。从盈利来看，多数机构认为，当前美国股市尚未对衰退计价，贝莱德在2月13日表示，当前企业盈利预期甚至还没完全反映出温和衰退的预期。富兰克林在2月13日表示，“焦点在于盈利是否能支撑现在的估值”。
从估值来看，买方机构认为美股当前位置并不低，但也无需过于悲观，汇丰中国在2月6日表示，“利率触顶或实际利率下降，都可能对目前的价格水平形成支撑”；广发基金在2月12日表示，“美股估值压力最大的时候可能已经过去”。
编辑/new
Source: Gao Ruidong Macro Notes
Author: Gao Ruidong Zha Huili
Introduction: this series of reports is based on the public statements of the buyer's organization, makes a vertical comparison in the time dimension, and makes a horizontal comparison in the institutional dimension, focusing on the market focus and differences.
Core viewpoints
Macroeconomic: weak recovery is the consensus, focusing on real estate.
At present, the buyer's agencies generally believe that the economy as a whole will continue to promote recovery this year, but the recovery will not be too flexible, and it is necessary to continue to observe the realization of profit repair in the future. Specifically, the buyer is particularly concerned about the real estate recovery. The Wells Fargo Fund said on February 12 that "the biggest forecast for this year's economic recovery lies in the property recovery." If the real estate recovery is not as expected, the market may have higher expectations for the policies of the 'two sessions'.
A-share: on the whole, the buyer's organization is positive and optimistic about the A-share market.
Most buy-side institutions are still optimistic about the A-share market, and some institutions believe that the index correction is limited. Looking to the future, institutions generally believe that as high-frequency data continue to verify economic recovery, A-shares are expected to continue to repair the market. Jingshun Great Wall (February 6) believes that the current profit forecasts of enterprises are still conservative and there is room for upward revision in the future.
Hong Kong stocks: most buyer institutions say they are "bullish in the medium term", but there are differences in valuation
There has been a round of adjustment in Hong Kong stocks recently, but buyers generally believe that the current correction in Hong Kong stocks is a revision of the market's expectations of "domestic economic recovery and overseas inflationary pressure relief". Hong Kong stocks will continue to benefit from the dual logic of the second half of the Fed interest rate hike and the recovery of the domestic economy. However, the market is divided over Hong Kong stock valuations. Southern Fund and Taikang Fund believe that the performance-to-price ratio of current Hong Kong stock valuations has weakened, but CSI Morgan believes that Hong Kong stock valuations are still low due to the continuous adjustment over the past two years.
Bond market: the view is generally cautious, and some buyer organizations think that the bond market is "against the wind".
Institutions are generally cautious about the domestic bond market, short-term neutral, medium-and long-end neutral and short-term. There are three main considerations: first, there are certain upward risks in bond yields in the economic recovery cycle; second, there are variables in the follow-up recovery of the real estate industry; and third, with the approach of the two sessions, we need to be vigilant of the impact of policies on expectations.
Overseas macro: interest rate cut may be later than market expectations, the United States enters a mild "recession" in the second half of the year.
Higher-than-expected non-farm and consumer data point to the resilience of the US economy, with a number of institutions saying that interest rates may be cut later than the market expected. At present, the buyer's agencies generally believe that the "recession" point has been delayed and may enter a "recession" in the second half of this year. But judging from the current state of the economy, the most likely is a mild recession.
Us stocks: recession has not yet been priced, corporate earnings are at risk of downward adjustment
Buyers at home and abroad are generally pessimistic about the trend of US stocks, and most institutions believe that the US stock market has not yet priced the recession. In terms of valuation, buyer institutions believe that the current position of US stocks is not low, but there is no need to be too pessimistic; but from the perspective of corporate earnings, buyer institutions generally believe that there is a downside risk of corporate earnings.
Us Treasuries: interest rates are under upward pressure in the short term, while the medium-and long-term trend remains downward
In the short term, resilient non-farm and inflation data and Fed hawks may cause yields to fluctuate upward. In the full-year dimension, most buyer agencies believe that the rate hike cycle is coming to an end, inflation is already slowing, the US economy may fall into recession in the second half of the year, and the medium-term trend in US bond interest rates is still downward.
Risk hint: overseas inflation exceeds expectations and domestic policies fall short of expectations.
Excerpt
Economy: weak recovery is the consensus, focusing on real estate
At present, the buyer's agencies generally believe that the economy as a whole shows a weak recovery this year. The Guangdong Development Fund said on February 12 that the overall economic recovery in 2023 will not be too resilient. The South Fund said on February 8 that the economic recovery is now showing a trend of "strong expectations and weak reality". Jingshun Great Wall said on February 6 that the visibility of the current economic recovery has improved, and it is necessary to continue to observe the realization of earnings repair.
Specifically, the buyer is particularly concerned about the real estate recovery. The Wells Fargo Fund said on February 12: "the biggest forecast for this year's economic recovery lies in the property recovery. If the real estate recovery is not as expected, the market may have higher expectations for the policies of the 'two sessions'.
Hong Kong stocks: most institutions are bullish in the medium term
After a rapid rebound in Hong Kong stocks at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, there has been a recent round of adjustment, but the buyer's organization is generally optimistic about the future view and is "bullish on Hong Kong stocks in the medium term". The Guangdong Development Fund (February 12) believes that the correction in Hong Kong stocks is due to the market's expectation revision of "domestic economic recovery and overseas inflationary pressure relief", and that Hong Kong stocks are still likely to continue to perform after the over-optimistic expectations are revised. Looking ahead, buyer institutions generally believe that there are two main lines to support Hong Kong stocks: one is the second half of the Fed's interest rate hike cycle, and the other is to continue to benefit from domestic economic repair and corporate earnings improvement.
However, the market is divided over valuations. Southern Fund and Taikang Fund believe that the performance-to-price ratio of current Hong Kong stock valuations has weakened, but CSI Morgan believes that Hong Kong stock valuations are still low due to the continuous adjustment over the past two years.
Us stocks: not yet priced in recession, corporate earnings are at risk of downward adjustment
Domestic and foreign buyer institutions' concerns about US stocks focus on the risk of downward adjustment in corporate earnings. In terms of earnings, most institutions believe that the current US stock market has not yet priced the recession. Blackrock said on February 13 that current corporate earnings expectations do not even fully reflect expectations of a mild recession. "the focus is on whether earnings can support current valuations," Franklin said on Feb. 13.
From the valuation point of view, the buyer's agency believes that the current position of US stocks is not low, but there is no need to be too pessimistic. HSBC China said on February 6 that "the peak of interest rates or the decline in real interest rates may support the current price level". The Guangfa Fund said on February 12 that "the time of the greatest valuation pressure on US stocks may have passed".
