原标题：国君策略：买龙头已不再躺赢King's strategy: buying a bibcock no longer lies down and wins. 来源：陈显顺策略研究
作者：国泰君安证券 陈显顺、喻雅彬
3月以来核心资产内部分化，成长性强弱成为股价分化的主导因素。展望下半年，业绩高增长驱动力不是来自宏观层面，而是产业催化，科技成长会持续占优。
摘要
2021年以来核心资产内部开始出现明显分化，此前依靠持有龙头个股“躺赢”的策略逐渐失效。2020年行情特征为核心资产的普遍上涨，而这一趋势终结于春节后蓝筹股泡沫破灭。3月以来，核心资产内部开始出现分化的走势。具备高景气、高增长特征的核心资产股价持续创出新高，如宁德时代年内涨幅达到44.78%。行业景气度转弱的个股，股价反而在不断创出新低，如三一重工年初至今收益率为-18.06%。
市场转变一：高成长策略收益开始跑赢高ROE策略。根据年初至今收益率高低，我们将核心资产股票池个股分为两组，对比后发现高收益组和低收益组在PEG、ROE指标上没有显著差别，最典型的特征差异来自于利润增速的层面，高收益组2021年预期利润增速比低收益组高出接近近10个百分点。拉长时间序列来看，我们发现在核心资产内部具备高ROE特征2020H1收益更好，但自2020Q4以来情况发生了反转，高成长性的核心资产开始跑赢高ROE类型的核心资产。
市场转变二：基金共识度越低的核心资产，年初至今收益率越高。我们以“基金持有家数”作为投资者对某只股票共识度的表征指标。2020年市场的整体情况是单只股票基金持股比越高、持股基金数越多，平均收益率越高。但这一现象在2021年出现了明显反转，体现在：2020年末持股基金数量越低的个股，2021年年初至今涨幅较高。而被最多基金认为是“好公司”，已经被充分挖掘且投资者认知高度一致、机构股东中基金的数量多的股票，反而自年初至今表现较弱。
宏观复苏见顶叠加中报窗口期，市场将聚焦盈利可持续增长的股票，高景气将是未来一段时间的市场主线。1）从中国经济政策不确定性指数来看，2021年宏观层面不确定性逐渐下行，为市场积蓄了反弹力量。2）随着下半年海内外疫后复苏顶部的到来，A股盈利压力会进一步加大，叠加中报、三季报两大业绩窗口期，市场关注点会从宏观流动性转下微观盈利，结构上资金将愈发聚焦高成长、盈利可持续的稀缺赛道。因此我们认为，高景气将是未来一段时间的市场主线。
展望未来，业绩高增长的驱动力不是来自宏观层面，而是产业催化，科技成长占优的局面会持续延续。下半年海外的迹象复苏出现见顶迹象，来自宏观经济周期驱动的“业绩高增长”动力变弱，恰逢科技有产业催化（鸿蒙，新能源车补贴加码等）。Q3海内外流动性边际收紧，结构上规避对海外流动性敏感的核心资产。推荐主线：1）中报盈利高增，石油产业链/钢铁；2）科技成长，电子/新能车。
目录
1. 核心资产内部分化，「躺赢」策略逐渐失效
2. 市场的转变：高成长成为核心定价因子
3. 展望未来：科技成长占优的局面会持续延续
一、核心资产内部分化，“躺赢”策略逐渐失效
普涨局面不再，2021年以来核心资产内部开始出现分化，此前依靠持有龙头个股“躺赢”的策略逐渐失效。本文将公募基金重仓前50+陆股通重仓前50个股合并后剔除重复标的，作为核心资产组合。
2020年市场行情表现为核心资产的普遍上涨，而2021年3月随着蓝筹股泡沫行情的破灭，核心资产内部开始出现明显分化，部分仍然维持高增长的核心资产股价创出新高，而另一部分增长失速的核心资产年初至今涨幅仍然为负值。
考察涨跌幅分布来看，2020年大多数核心资产均上涨，仅有6只标的全年出现下跌，且整体的涨幅均在50%以上，有10只个股涨幅在200%以上，而2021年年初至今有23只核心资产标的下跌，而表现最优的个股涨幅也达到了56.27%，整体分化较为严重。
2021年全年维度来看，业绩预期高增长的个股仍然在不断创出新高，而中低增长预期的个股在本轮反弹中表现弱势，甚至还创出新低。
从核心资产标的当中，以宁德时代为代表的全年高增长预期的个股在本轮行情领涨，自2019年初以来的涨幅接近370%，2021年来涨幅44.78%，而贵州茅台则是维持相对稳定的增速个股的代表，在本轮行情的过程当中弱势反弹，而三一重工由于挖掘机景气的高峰已过，市场对其2021年的增速预期由高增长转向低增长，其股价在本轮行情当中不断创出新低，2021年年初至今的跌幅以达到-18.06%。
二、市场的转变：高成长成为核心定价因子
基于核心资产分化的走势，本文依照收益率的特征将其分为两组，一组为年内最高价与最新收盘价差距在20%以下，即通过本轮行情基本收复3月份跌幅甚至创出新高的品种，另一组为年内最高价与最新收盘价差距在20%以上的品种，即当前未能收复的品种，从走势上来看，两组不同的品种在2020年走势上几乎保持一致，而2021年3月以来明显分化，其中A组指数已经在近期创出新高。
而走势分化的两类股票在财务指标、股东持股等特征上有着明显区别：
从财务指标来看，两组股票的典型特征在于利润增速的差异。其中，从ROE的水平上来看，核心资产A组为17.30%，反而低于核心资产B组19.85%，由此说明2021年来涨幅靠前的板块并非ROE水平较高；从PEG指标上来看，A组1.56x高于B组1.22x；而反观2021年预计的利润增速，核心资产A组增速为33.03%，显著高于B组23.10%，利润增速是区分两类核心资产涨幅差距明显的关键。
若按照ROE和利润增速将核心资产进行分组，可发现2021预计利润增速越高的品种，年初至今收益率越靠前。按照净利润增速由低至高的顺序进行排列，其年初至今收益率（流通市值加权）也呈现出由低到高单调递增的趋势。其中2021年全年预期净利润增速在45%以上的组合年度加权收益率达到19.40%，而净利润增速在11%以下的核心资产组合加权收益率仅为-2.51%。
高ROE因子在2017-2019及2020年上半年表现较优，而自2020年下半年来高成长因子开始显著跑赢。
进一步我们按照ROE预测值与当期全年盈利增速预测值分为高低两组，按照月度的频率进行调仓并计算净值曲线，从走势结果来看，高ROE组合在2017-2018年的行情当中表现十分突出，其相对于低ROE组合的净值之差一度接近50%，高增长因子表现并不明显。
而自2020年8月开始，ROE因子相对于高成长因子的有效性开始逐步削弱，从二者净值之比来看，自2020年6月开始高ROE-低ROE/高G-低G的比值由1.6一路下滑至1.1。
共识度越低的核心资产，年初至今收益率越高。我们以“基金持有家数”作为投资者对某只股票共识度的表征指标。在此前外发报告中，我们对核心资产交易层面的因素进行了分析，依照2020年末核心资产的持股基金数量，同样分为四组考察2020年全年以及2021年初至今的涨跌幅。
其中2020年持股基金数目较多、共识度较高的品种收益率整体较高，但2021年这一现象出现了反转，以2020年末的持股基金数量为统计标准，依持股基金数量由高向低2021年加权收益率逐步递减，其中2020年末持股基金数小于553只的核心资产组加权收益率为12.10%，而高于1147只持股基金数的核心资产组2021加权收益率仅2.92%。
总结来看，成长因子凸显+共识偏低的品种逆袭是2021年来市场交易的重要特征变化：其一，财务特征层面，市场关注的焦点核心由盈利的稳定性、ROE水平的高低转向绝对的盈利增速水平；其二，筹码分布度层面，此前部分共识度较高、持股基金数量较多的核心资产反而涨幅较小，部分共识度低但基金持股比例不低的核心资产表现较优。
三、展望未来：科技成长占优的局面会持续延续
为什么高成长因子表现好？一方面来看，风险评价的下行使得此前部分高增长的中盘蓝筹盈利增长的确定性上升，另一方面，盈利整体下行趋势下，结构性带来的分化会更加明显。
1）当前市场风险评价下行，此前市场交易的确定性溢价在此背景之下逐步回落。
当前我们正处于宏观经济、政策、通胀、盈利、流动性等不确定转向确定的过程。风险评价由外向内传导，从经济形势变得确定→流动性收紧变得确定→通胀预期变得确定→政策变得确定→最终全球经济格局变得确定，由此整个外部环境越来越走向确定，市场风险评价随之下降。
从中国经济政策不确定性指数来看，2021年以来不确定性显著下行，因此此前增长存在较大不确定性的中盘蓝筹边际改善程度最为显著，因此成为了最为受益的一大方向。
2）随着全A盈利增速的见顶回落，Q4盈利负增长趋势下结构性带来的分化会更加明显。
在国君策略团队6月15日发布的报告《向死而生，四季度盈利增速为负？》报告当中，我们对于A股今年的盈利节奏和盈利结构进行了详尽分析与预判，全A/全A非金融归母净利润在2021年四季度将面临零增长的考验。
在盈利整体下行的趋势之下，市场在交易国内宏观复苏见顶，结构上转向盈利可持续高增的方向，当前核心定价因子是G。5月经济数据进一步确认国内复苏见顶，出口新订单和工业生产增速下滑，消费反弹的斜率放缓。与经济周期相关的银行、保险、建材、免税表现疲弱。
中报季渐近，市场关注点从宏观流动性转向微观盈利，资金转向高景气、高增长的方向。持续维持较高的盈利增速品种将更为稀缺。
展望未来，业绩高增长的驱动力不是来自宏观层面，而是产业催化，科技成长占优的局面会持续延续。
下半年海外的迹象复苏出现见顶迹象，来自宏观经济周期驱动的“业绩高增长”动力变弱，恰逢科技有产业催化（鸿蒙，新能源车补贴加码等）。Q3海内外流动性边际收紧，结构上规避对海外流动性敏感的核心资产。推荐主线：1）中报盈利高增，石油产业链/钢铁；2）科技成长，电子/新能车。
编辑/tina
Source: Chen Xianshun Strategy Research
Authors: Guotai Junan Securities Chen Xianshun, Yu Yabin
Since March, the internal differentiation of core assets and the strength of growth have become the leading factors of stock price differentiation. Looking forward to the second half of the year, the driving force of high performance growth is not from the macro level, but from industrial catalysis, scientific and technological growth will continue to dominate.
Abstract
Since 2021, there has been a marked differentiation within the core assets, and the strategy of "lying down and winning" by holding leading stocks has gradually become invalid.The 2020 market is characterized by a general rise in core assets, a trend that ended with the bursting of the blue chip bubble after the Spring Festival. Since March, there has been a trend of differentiation within the core assets. The share prices of core assets with the characteristics of high prosperity and high growth continue to hit new highs, such as 44.78% in the Ningde era. On the contrary, the share prices of individual stocks whose prosperity in the industry is weakening continue to hit new lows. For example, the return of Sany heavy Industries so far this year is-18.06%.
Market shift one: high growth strategy returns begin to outperform high ROE strategy.According to the year-to-date rate of return, we divide the stock pool of core assets into two groups. After comparison, we find that there is no significant difference in PEG and ROE indicators between the high-income group and the low-income group. The most typical difference comes from the level of profit growth. The expected profit growth of the high-income group in 2021 is nearly 10 percentage points higher than that of the low-income group. From the lengthening time series, we find that 2020H1 returns with high ROE characteristics in core assets are better, but the situation has reversed since 2020Q4, and high-growth core assets begin to outperform high-ROE core assets.
Market change 2: the lower the mutual understanding of the core assets, the higher the rate of return from the beginning of the year to date.We use the "number of fund holders" as an indicator of investor consensus on a stock. The overall situation of the market in 2020 is that the higher the shareholding ratio of a single stock fund and the more the number of shareholding funds, the higher the average rate of return. However, this phenomenon has been significantly reversed in 2021, which is reflected in: the lower the number of holding funds at the end of 2020, the higher the increase since the beginning of 2021. On the other hand, the stocks, which are regarded as "good companies" by the most funds, have been fully excavated and highly recognized by investors, and the number of funds among institutional shareholders is large, but their performance has been weak since the beginning of the year.
The macro recovery peaked and superimposed the reporting window, the market will focus on stocks with sustainable growth in earnings, and high prosperity will be the main line of the market for some time to come.1) from the perspective of China's economic policy uncertainty index, the macro-level uncertainty gradually declined in 2021, accumulating a rebound force for the market. 2) with the arrival of the top of the recovery after the epidemic at home and abroad in the second half of the year, the profit pressure of A shares will further increase. During the two major performance windows of the China report and the three-quarter report, the market focus will shift from macro liquidity to micro profits. structurally, funds will increasingly focus on scarce tracks with high growth and sustainable profits. Therefore, we believe that Gao Jingjing will be the main line of the market for some time in the future.
Looking to the future, the driving force of high performance growth does not come from the macro level, but industrial catalysis, and the dominant situation of scientific and technological growth will continue.Signs of recovery overseas peaked in the second half of the year, with the weakening of the momentum of "high performance growth" driven by the macroeconomic cycle, coinciding with the industrial catalysis of technology (Hongmeng, increased subsidies for new energy vehicles, etc.). Q3 tightens the margin of liquidity at home and abroad, structurally avoiding core assets that are sensitive to overseas liquidity. Recommended main line:1) high profit growth in China News, oil industry chain / steel; 2) technological growth, electronic / new energy vehicles.
Catalogue
1. The core assets are divided internally, and the "lie-win" strategy gradually fails.
two。 The transformation of the market: high growth becomes the core pricing factor
3. Looking to the future: the dominant situation of scientific and technological growth will continue.
First, the internal differentiation of the core assets and the gradual failure of the "lie-win" strategy.
The general rising situation is no longer, and the core assets have been divided since 2021, and the strategy of "lying down and winning" by holding leading stocks has gradually become invalid.In this paper, the public offering fund heavy position of the first 50 + Land Stock Tong heavy position of the first 50 shares after the merger to eliminate the repetitive target, as the core asset portfolio.
In 2020, the market showed a general rise in core assets, while in March 2021, with the bursting of the blue chip bubble, there began to be obvious differentiation within core assets, and the share prices of some core assets that still maintained high growth reached a new high. on the other hand, the growth of some core assets which have stalled is still negative so far this year.
Looking at the distribution of ups and downs, most of the core assets rose in 2020, and only six of them fell for the whole year, and the overall increase was more than 50%, and 10 stocks rose more than 200%. Since the beginning of 2021, 23 core assets have fallen, while the best-performing stocks have also risen by 56.27%. The overall differentiation is more serious.
From the perspective of the annual dimension of 2021, stocks with high performance expectations continue to hit new highs, while stocks with medium and low growth expectations perform weakly or even hit new lows in this rebound.
Among the core asset targets, stocks with high annual growth expectations, represented by the Ningde era, led the market, rising nearly 370% since the beginning of 2019 and 44.78% in 2021. Guizhou Moutai is the representative of individual stocks that maintain a relatively stable growth rate, rebounding weakly in the process of this round of market, while Sany heavy Industry has passed the peak of the excavator boom. The market expects its growth rate in 2021 to shift from high growth to low growth, and its share price continues to hit new lows in the current market, falling by-18.06% since the beginning of 2021.
Second, the transformation of the market: high growth becomes the core pricing factor.
Based on the trend of differentiation of core assets, this paper divides them into two groups according to the characteristics of the rate of return. One group is that the gap between the highest price of the year and the latest closing price is less than 20%, that is, the varieties that basically recover the decline in March or even hit a new high through this round of quotations. The other group is the varieties with a gap of more than 20% between the highest price of the year and the latest closing price, that is, the varieties that have not been recovered at present. The trend of the two groups of varieties remained almost the same in 2020, but there has been obvious differentiation since March 2021, in which the group An index has reached a new high in the near future.
On the other hand, there are obvious differences between the two types of stocks in financial indicators, shareholders' shareholding and other characteristics:
From the perspective of financial indicators, the typical characteristic of the two groups of stocks lies in the difference in profit growth.Among them, from the level of ROE, the core asset group An is 17.30%, on the contrary, it is 19.85% lower than the core asset group B, which shows that the sector with the top growth rate since 2021 is not at a higher ROE level; from the PEG index, group A 1.56x is higher than group B 1.22x. In contrast to the projected profit growth in 2021, the growth rate of core assets in group An is 33.03%, which is significantly higher than that in group B by 23.10%. Profit growth is the key to distinguish the obvious gap between the two types of core assets.
If you group core assets according to ROE and profit growth, you can find that the higher the expected profit growth in 2021, the higher the yield so far this year.According to the order of net profit growth from low to high, the rate of return (weighted by current market capitalization) has also shown a monotonous increasing trend from low to high since the beginning of the year. Among them, the annual weighted return of the portfolio with expected net profit growth of more than 45% in 2021 reached 19.40%, while the weighted return of the core portfolio with net profit growth of less than 11% was only-2.51%.
The high ROE factor performed better in 2017-2019 and the first half of 2020, while the high growth factor began to win significantly since the second half of 2020.
Furthermore, we are divided into high and low groups according to the ROE forecast and the current annual profit growth forecast, adjust the position according to the monthly frequency and calculate the net value curve. From the trend results, the high ROE combination performed very well in the market from 2017 to 2018, and the net difference between the high ROE combination and the low ROE combination was once close to 50%. The performance of the high growth factor is not obvious.
Since August 2020, the effectiveness of the ROE factor relative to the high growth factor has gradually weakened. From the ratio of the two net values, the ratio of high ROE-, low ROE/, high G and low G has declined from 1.6 to 1.1 since June 2020.
The lower the consensus of the core assets, the higher the rate of return so far this year.We use the "number of fund holders" as an indicator of investor consensus on a stock. In the previous outsourcing report, we analyzed the factors at the trading level of core assets and divided them into four groups to examine the rise and fall of 2020 and early 2021 according to the number of shareholding funds of core assets at the end of 2020.
Among them, the returns of the varieties with a large number of shareholding funds and high consensus in 2020 are higher as a whole, but this phenomenon has been reversed in 2021, taking the number of shareholding funds at the end of 2020 as the statistical standard. the weighted return of the number of shareholding funds decreases gradually from high to low in 2021, of which the weighted return of the core asset group with less than 553 shareholding funds at the end of 2020 is 12.10%. The core asset group, which has more than 1147 holding funds, has a weighted return of 2021, compared with 2.92 per cent.
To sum up, the counterattack of varieties with prominent growth factors and low consensus is an important feature of market trading since 2021: first, at the level of financial characteristics, the focus of the market has shifted from the stability of earnings and the level of ROE to the absolute level of profit growth. Second, at the level of chip distribution, some of the core assets with a high degree of consensus and a large number of shareholding funds rose less, while some core assets with a low degree of consensus but not a low proportion of fund holdings performed better.
Third, looking forward to the future: the dominant situation of scientific and technological growth will continue.
Why does the high growth factor perform well? On the one hand, the downside of risk assessment increases the certainty of the previous high-growth mid-market blue-chip profit growth; on the other hand, under the overall downward trend of earnings, the structural differentiation will be more obvious.
The main results are as follows: 1) the current market risk assessment is declining, and the deterministic premium of market trading has gradually fallen under this background.
At present, we are in the process of turning from macroeconomic, policy, inflation, profitability, liquidity and other uncertainties to certainty. The risk assessment is transmitted from the outside to the inside, and from the economic situation it becomes certain that "liquidity tightening becomes certain, inflation expectations become certain" and the policy becomes certain. Finally, the global economic situation becomes more and more certain, and the whole external environment becomes more and more certainty. Market risk assessment has declined as a result.
From the perspective of China's economic policy uncertainty index, the uncertainty has declined significantly since 2021, so the marginal improvement of the mid-market blue chip, which previously had greater uncertainty in growth, is the most significant, so it has become the most beneficial direction.
2) with the peak of the total A profit growth rate, the structural differentiation brought about by the Q4 profit negative growth trend will be more obvious.
In the report released by the King Strategy team on June 15, "born to death, negative profit growth in the fourth quarter?" "in the report, we made a detailed analysis and forecast of the profit rhythm and profit structure of A shares this year. All A / all A non-financial return net profit will face the test of zero growth in the fourth quarter of 2021.
Under the overall downward trend of earnings, the market has peaked in the domestic macro recovery of trading, and the structure has turned to the direction of sustainable and high growth of profits. the current core pricing factor is G. Economic data in May further confirmed that the domestic recovery peaked, the growth rate of new export orders and industrial production fell, and the slope of the rebound in consumption slowed. The performance of banks, insurance, building materials and tax exemptions related to the economic cycle is weak.
As the reporting season is approaching, the market focus has shifted from macro liquidity to micro profits, and funds to the direction of high prosperity and high growth. Varieties that continue to maintain a high profit growth rate will be more scarce.
Looking to the future, the driving force of high performance growth does not come from the macro level, but industrial catalysis, and the dominant situation of scientific and technological growth will continue.
Signs of recovery overseas peaked in the second half of the year, with the weakening of the momentum of "high performance growth" driven by the macroeconomic cycle, coinciding with the industrial catalysis of technology (Hongmeng, increased subsidies for new energy vehicles, etc.). Q3 tightens the margin of liquidity at home and abroad, structurally avoiding core assets that are sensitive to overseas liquidity. Recommended main line:1) high profit growth in China News, oil industry chain / steel; 2) technological growth, electronic / new energy vehicles.
Edit / tina
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