来源：洪灝的中国市场策略
“纵观历史，正如饥荒之后总有丰年，熊市之后也总有牛市。3000年前约瑟的故事就证明了，对于拐点的预期可以为人生带来重大的改变。” -- 巴顿·比格斯
"Back across the ages, bear markets follow bulls as famines follow feasts, and 3000 years ago Joseph proved that anticipation of the inflection point can make tremendous influence on your life-style". -- Barton Biggs, April 1, 1996
十几年前，巴顿·比格斯（Barton Biggs）离开摩根斯坦利，去成立自己的对冲基金。他解释说：离开公司的原因，是因为在公司的时间越来越多地花在了行政工作上，而专心做研究的时间却越来越少。研究学习是他的毕生之爱。
临别之际，比格斯签名赠予我此书单。在读书日，我把它翻出来，与大家分享一下。值得一提的是，这个书单在他离开摩根斯坦利之前的十几年前就已经发表。许多这里三十多年前推荐的书，现在也已出现在许多不同的荐书单里。
我总是觉得，当下许多“投资必读"书籍的推荐，都不假思索地推荐那些事耳熟能详的经典。而推荐人自己可能并没有仔细读过。这样推荐的风险很低，但是对于读者的增加值很小。这样的推荐其实就是不负责任地浪费读者的宝贵时间。而读着所有人人手一本的书，能够获得的新的、不同的认知的机会小之又小。我以后再写另外一篇，介绍我自己喜欢的投资书籍吧。
这里的书，我基本上都读过，最喜欢《Captital Ideas》、《The Great Crash，1929》和《Manias，Panics，and Crashes》。不仅仅是因为这些书是经典的经典，更因为它们在描述宏观大势的时候没有忘记对细节的追溯。而且文笔亦佳。翻译往往不能传神，请尽可能读原文。
本文原文发表于五年前，2016年4月23日的世界读书日。
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以下是我翻译的比格斯荐书单的原文。
十几年前，我发表了这个书单。然而，我的朋友们总是不断地让我更新这个单子。这么多年来，我读过的、参差不齐的好书都在这里。阅读与投资有关的书让人达到两个目的：首先，我们的认知有限。无泛读而难以明志。再者，一如国会图书馆的横幅上写到：不读史则难免重蹈覆辙。金融经济的历史周而复始。我有满满两书架我读过的好书，相互交错缠绵。投资兼容并包，因此我的书单也横跨了历史、心理学。我以下的书单不分先后，并从一至五以星码标出。一切随心，也看文笔。
Barton M. Biggs
I published this list ten years ago and I keep getting requests to update it, so here it is in all its infamy. Reading books about investing does two things for you. First, as investors, we are only the limited product of our own experiences and therefore vulnerable unless we read and assimilate the accumulated wisdom of the great ones. Second, as it says on the façade of the Library of Congress: “Those who have not studied the past are condemned to repeat it.” Economic and particularly financial history definitely tends to repeat itself.
I have two long shelves of the best books I have read that relate one way or another to investing. Since investing is about everything, my books relate to diverse subjects ranging from history to psychology. In no particular order here is my list, with star rankings from 1 to 5. The whole exercise is completely subjective. Readability counts.
Groupthink*****. Irving L Janis. Houghton Mifflin: 1982. (The best book ever written on the complexities and pitfalls of group decision making, which is what an investment management firm is all about.)
The Alchemy of Finance***. George Soros. Simon & Schuster: 1987. (The master is complex, dense, but superb. His best book.)
Panic on Wall Street***. Robert Sobel. Macmillan: 1978. (The definitive study of American panics.)
Manias, Panics, and Crashes****. Charles P. Kindleberger. Basic Books: 1988. (The best scholarly analysis of the species.)
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator*****. Edwin Lefevre. George H. Doran Company: 1923; reissued by J. Wiley: 1994. (The classic work about intuitive trading. No investor’s education is complete without reading it. )
The Money Game*****. Adam Smith. Random House: 1967. (Nobody writes like Gerry. Full of wisdom. It’s a pleasure to read. )
The Roaring ’80s***. Adam Smith. Summit Books: 1988. (More Gerry; if you get addicted, Supermoney is good, too.)
Contrarian Investment Strategy***. David Dreman. Random House: 1979. (A classic on why and how to be contrary.)
The Battle for Investment Survival*. Gerald Loeb. Random House: 1957. (One great idea. Put all your eggs in one basket and stare at that basket.)
The Great Crash, 1929***. John Kenneth Galbraith. Houghton Mifflin: 1961. (Good study of the Crash.)
Instincts of the Herd in Peace and War**. W. Trotter. Macmillan: 1908; reissued by T. Fisher Unwin: 1919. (Dense, insightful analysis of gregariousness and suggestibility.)
Duveen. S.N. Behrman***. Harmony Books: 1978. (Fascinating biography of the great dealer and a wonderful history of the art market and its fads.)
Investment Policy**. Charles D. Ellis. Dow Jones-Irwin: 1985. (All of Charlie’s books have great insights, especially this one and Institutional Investing***.)
The Way the World Works**. Jude Wanniski. Touchstone: 1978. (I’m prejudiced because I believe, but this is the supply-side Old Testament.)
Wealth and Poverty**. George Gilder. Basic Books: 1981. (The New Testament of supply side.)
Growth Opportunities in Common Stocks**. Winthrop Knowlton. Harper & Row: 1965. (This book and Shaking The Money Tree**, with John Furth, are both superb on growth stock investing.)
The Elliott Wave Principle*. A. Frost, R. Prechter. New Classic Library: 1978. (Important to understand Fibonacci et al.)
The Great Depression of 1990*. Ravi Batra. Venus Books: 1985. (We are condemned to repeat the mistakes not of our fathers but of our grandfathers.)
Technical Analysis of Stock Trends**. Edwards and Magee. Magee: 1966. (The manual on technical analysis.)
The Intelligent Investor***. Benjamin Graham. Harper: 1949. Security Analysis****. Graham and Dodd. Harper: 1951. (The bibles of value investing.)
The Long Wave in Economic Life**. J. J. Van Duijn. Allen & Unwire: 1983. (Best book I know of on cycles, which is what investing is all about.)
Confessions of an Advertising Man. ***. David Ogilvy. Atheneum: 1964. (Wonderful treatise on how to sell consumer products, written with wit and wisdom.)
Green Monday**. Michael M. Thomas. Simon & Schuster: 1980. (The best stock market novel ever written.)
Classics I and Classics II*****. Edited by Charles D. Ellis. Dow Jones-Irwin: 1989 and 1991. (Both collections are great browsing.)
Chaos**. James Gleick. Penguin Books: 1987. (Important to understand chaos theory.)
Investing with the Best*. Claude N. Rosenberg, Jr. Wiley: 1986. (Excellent on how to manage your investment manager.)
Managing Investment Portfolios**. Maugham and Tuttle. Warren, Gorham & Lamont: 1983. (Good stuff, but heavy going.)
Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds****. Charles Mackay: 1841; reissued by Metro Books: 2002. (The ancient classic but still should be read.)
The Speculator**. Jordan A. Schwarz. Chapel Hill: 1981. (Superb biography of Baruch. Note how he would from time to time retreat from the market. )
Capital Ideas**. Peter Bernstein. Free Press: 1992. (History of the ideas that shaped modern finance. Peter sometimes is too intellectual for me.)
Devil Take the Hindmost*** Edward Chancellor. Farrar, Strauss, & Giroux: 1999. (Erudite, articulate history of manias and panics over the ages.)
Pioneering Portfolio Management ****. David F. Swensen. The Free Press: 2000. (The best book ever about managing a large endowment portfolio.)
Stocks for the Long Run****. Jeremy Siegel. McGraw-Hill: Third Edition, 2002. (Absolutely crammed with fascinating information and analysis.)
The Trouble with Prosperity**. James Grant. Times Books: 1996. (Jim writes beautifully and all his books are great reads, although invariably bearish.)
Gold and Iron**. Fritz Stern. Vintage: 1979. (Absorbing history of Bismarck and Bleichroeder, Europe in the 19th century, and capital preservation.)
Markets, Mobs, & Mayhem***. Robert Menschel. Wiley: 2002. (“A modern look at the madness of crowds” and the most recent addition to my list.)
The Innovator’s Dilemma*. Clayton Christensen. Harvard Business School Press: 1997. (Breakthrough idea of why new technologies cause great firms to fail.)
Valuing Wall Street***. Andrew Smithers & Stephen Wright. McGraw-Hill: 2000. (The rationale of the q ratio by Smithers, a brilliant analytical mind.)
The Myths of Inflation And Investing**. Steven C. Leuthold. Crain Books: 1980. (Updated for deflation; consistent, extensive studies; not light reading)
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