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标题：ASML20Q1业绩交流会纪要
会议时间：2020年4月15日
免责声明：本会议纪要由方正证券科技团队翻译/整理，可能存在与该公司官方公布的纪要原文/录音有不一致或不准确之处，请投资者以上市公司发布的纪要原文/录音为准。本会议纪要内容仅供投资者参考，不包含任何方正证券研究所的投资意见和建议，投资者需自行承担投资决策的风险。
彼得·温宁克
欢迎大家。我感谢您加入我们的2020年第一季度业绩电话会议。我希望你们所有人和家人都健康安全。在我们开始常规的季度业绩审查之前，我想首先讨论一下每个人所关心的话题，即COVID-19大流行和形势。
尽管这是史无前例，充满挑战的时代，而COVID-19大流行影响着我们所有人，但我们在ASML的主要目标仍然是尽我们所能确保同事和家人的安全。我们的第二个目标是确保我们继续为客户提供服务，并确保产品路线图的交付，包括我们供应的连续性。我们一直在采取预防措施以限制风险。现在，我们大多数非制造业的员工都在家工作，旅行受到限制。在中国，我们的同事正在返回办公室，但我们仍然保持警惕。
在我们自己的工厂中，我们已限制进入全球制造工厂的访问权限，尤其是我们的洁净室，以确保同事可以安全地工作。我们采取了措施，来确保轮班员工之间的隔离。我们还实施了其他安全和清洁协议，以最大程度地减少污染风险。我们与客户，供应商和合作伙伴紧密合作，以共享信息并确定最佳实践。在我们努力应对这场危机的过程中，我们在ASML以及整个行业看到了许多创造力，韧性和奉献精神。
迄今为止，我们认为ASML的制造能力受到的影响有限。尽管缺勤，运输和支持物流还面临其他挑战，我们必须对此进行管理。某些隔离要求对我们的效率产生了影响，而旅行限制对安装和重大升级提出了挑战。我们正在与客户合作，以计划并找到更好的解决方案，例如使用远程监控，增强现实解决方案和诊断技术来协助系统的服务和维修。
关于我们的供应链，因为我们的一些供应商因政府封锁和庇护所订单而暂时关闭。在这个阶段，我们要么能够绕过这些暂时性的中断，但关闭的问题已经解决了。我们正在通过替代性采购来管理风险，并再次发挥了大量的创造力。我们正在密切关注，我们将尽可能地使用安全库存，以确保尽可能地减少中断。
在这个时候，我们已经能够找到解决这些挑战的办法。关于客户需求方面，我们目前没有看到今年的需求减少，我们的订单量也很旺盛。这方面我稍后会再谈一下。在现金管理方面，虽然我们的资产负债表非常健康，成本结构也很灵活，但是我们觉得如果情况持续很长一段时间，我们觉得保留现金是非常谨慎的，不仅仅是围绕着我们的运营，也是为了在这种非常情况下能够最大限度的支持我们的供应商，罗杰会更多的谈一下具体的行动。
大家都会明白，在这样的环境下，我们很难确定事情会如何发展，会持续多久，会对全球GDP的发展产生什么样的影响，会影响到我们整个行业的发展。我们正在采取必要的措施，在安全、降低风险和金融措施方面采取必要的措施，以最好的方式来管理，度过这个充满挑战的时期。看到ASML和整个行业的创造力、应变能力和奉献精神让人感到非常鼓舞。
现在，在我们开始问答环节之前，我想转到正常的季度财报流程，罗杰和我想对第一季度的情况做一个概述和一些评论。罗杰将首先回顾我们第一季度的财务表现，随后对我们的短期前景进行评论。而我将在完成介绍后，就目前的经营环境和未来的经营前景做一些补充的评论。
罗杰-达森
谢谢你，彼得。欢迎大家。希望大家都能平安无事，身体健康。我首先回顾一下第一季度的财务业绩，然后对2020年第二季度的情况做一些点评。我也会详细介绍一下我们在现金管理方面所采取的措施。
净销售额为24亿欧元，低于我们原来的指导价31亿至33亿欧元，这主要与COVID-19的影响有关。16亿欧元的系统净销售额中，逻辑业务占比73%，其余27%来自于存储器，这显然显示出逻辑业务的持续强势。我们在一季度实际出货了四套EUV系统，但我们只在其中的两套系统上确认了收入，我将在后面详细介绍。
本季度的安装基础管理业务销售额为8.57亿欧元。这比指导值低了约1亿欧元，原因是由于缺乏机器时间，以及升级的延迟和接受升级的时间。我们预计这些升级将在第二季度转化为收入。
让我再详细介绍一下本季度发生的一些项目，这些项目导致系统收入转移约7亿欧元，包括DPV相关的收入转移超过2亿欧元，EUV相关的收入转移超过5亿欧元，主要与COVID-19的影响有关。首先，由于COVID-19造成的旅行限制，我们在向中国武汉的客户以及其他客户的DPV发货方面出现了一些延迟。我们正在与客户合作，为下个季度的发货做准备。
其次，由于EUV组件供应商因COVID-19法规的限制而暂时中断，我们的供应链出现了一些问题。这些供应链问题暂时已经解决了。此外，我们在最终配置中的首批NXE3500C机型的EUV周期时间比最初计划的要长，主要是由于作为模块化容器的一部分的直列10加注的复杂部署造成的。
目前，与此相关的周期时间每周都在缩短，我们正在按计划实现今年年底实现预期的周期时间缩短。众所周知，这是2021年及以后实现45至50台EUV工具能力的重要因素。由于周期时间长于预期，以及COVID-19的相关供应问题，我们看到本季度EUV出货量出现了一些延迟，导致系统出货量低于原计划。
第三，由于担心在目前情况下系统的持续出货能力，部分客户要求我们在本季度加快EUV系统的出货速度，在正常的工厂验收测试前出货，这意味着我们的收入确认将延迟，因为最终验收将在客户现场安装成功后进行。我们预计，由于上述问题而导致第一季未能确认的收入将转移到今年第二季和第三季。
本季度的毛利率为45.1%，也低于我们最初的指导意见，主要是由于现场升级延迟，以及与COVID-19影响相关的DPV系统收入延迟所致。总的来说，运营费用符合指导意见，研发费用为5.44亿欧元，SG&A费用为1.3亿欧元。在资产负债表方面，第一季度回购了价值5.07亿欧元的股票。上季度末，我们的现金、现金等价物和短期投资达到了41亿欧元的水平。
在订单量方面，第一季度系统订单量达到31亿欧元，其中包括11个EUV系统的15亿欧元。其中逻辑订单占总金额的66%，其余34%用于存储器，这再次反映出今年和明年前沿光刻技术对逻辑的需求持续强劲，同时也表明存储器的需求正在复苏。第一季度的净收入为3.91亿欧元，占净销售额的16%，实现了0.93欧元的EPS。
说到这里，我想对2020年的Q2发表一些看法。正如Peter提到的，今年我们没有看到需求减少，我们的订单量继续保持强劲，比第四季度增长了28%左右。根据目前的计划，在没有COVID中断的情况下，第二季度可以成为一个强劲的出货季度，收入可能比第一季度增长50%以上，毛利率也会有明显的提升。我们仍计划按照目前的计划执行。但是，由于COVID-19的大环境存在很大的不确定性，我们决定对第二季度不给出正式的指导意见。
最后，关于现金管理方面。虽然，我们的资产负债表非常健康，成本结构也很灵活，但我们和许多同行和客户一样，都依赖于COVID-19爆发的短期和长期影响。由于这些不确定因素，我们认为，如果情况持续很长时间，保留现金是谨慎的做法，这不仅是为了我们自身的运营，也是为了在这种特殊情况下能够最大限度地支持我们的供应商。
我们已决定在2020年第二季度不执行任何股份回购。这一决定是在第一季度暂停并执行该计划之后作出的，此前我们已经根据新计划进行了约5.07亿欧元的股份回购，并在第一季度执行了该计划。此前宣布的三年期股份回购计划，在2020年、2022年的时间框架内执行的最高60亿欧元的股份回购计划仍在执行。
我们还实施了限制员工队伍增长的措施。非业务关键职位的空缺已经被搁置。我们将继续招聘业务关键岗位的人员。这样一来，我们今年的员工队伍的增长将低于原计划。我们还将推迟任何非业务关键性的OpEx和CapEx。但是，我们将继续投资于未来技术路线图的开发，包括High-NA的未调整步伐，以使我们的客户在情况正常化后，能够继续延续他们的路线图。
正如上季度所通报的那样，ASML已经在2020年股东大会上提交了一项提案，提议宣布2019年的总分红为每股普通股2.40欧元。考虑到2019年11月支付的1.05欧元的中期股息，这导致第二季度将支付1.35欧元的末期股息。这与2018年的股息相比，增加了14%。2020年的年度股东大会将于4月22日在维尔德霍芬举行。
Peter Wennink
正如罗杰所强调的，我们的订单量很强，今年以来我们还没有看到任何重大的推送或取消。我们客户的很多投资都是战略性的，支持他们的技术路线图，是我们前沿客户的生命线。因此，这些战略投资主要是与前沿设备相关的，如EUV和高端浸入式扫描仪等需要较长的交货期和鉴定时间的前沿设备。最近，前沿客户也证实了这一点，他们也告诉我们，至少在今年全年，他们看到了对前沿设备的需求量有增无减。
请记住，光刻系统的交期和鉴定时间是晶圆厂中最长的，客户不希望因为技术和产能梯度的调整而危及到他们的技术和产能梯度的调整，从而影响到他们继续服务于前沿客户的能力。由于目前的情况非常不稳定，我们正在与客户进行更频繁的会面，以了解他们在需求前景方面可能出现的任何变化。
总的来说，大多数客户仍表示到目前为止仍在继续进行相对正常的晶圆厂运营。Logic的客户目前仍在继续加码七纳米和五纳米节点，以支持5G、AI和高性能计算等终端市场应用。在数据中心的需求方面，也有一些积极的迹象正在被报道，以及笔记本和通信基础设施的需求，在家庭工作和虚拟学习活动的大幅增长的推动下，也有一些积极的迹象。
这些应用推动了对逻辑和内存的需求。但也可以预期，除了COVID-19危机对GDP的潜在负面影响外，与消费类电子产品相关的电子产品，如智能手机等也可能面临压力。我们预计，随着安装基数的不断增长，安装基数业务将继续扩大，同时也将看到EUV对服务收入的贡献，因为这些系统开始在量产中运行晶圆，我们也将看到EUV对服务收入的贡献。
目前我们在几个客户有升级计划，然而，在目前的环境下，我们意识到存在供应和需求风险。我们的订单量显示，在DPV的推动下，存储器的订单量较上一季度有所增长，而逻辑继续呈现出从DPV到EUV的过渡，随着客户对EUV信心的增强，订单量也随着客户对EUV的信心的增加而增加，转化为逻辑生产的更多层次。
在EUV方面，随着行业的发展，亚光科技在EUV技术在大批量制造方面继续取得进展，最近在2月份的SPIE光刻会议上，亚光科技也展示了这一点。我们的客户继续在逻辑存储器中采用和夯实EUV在大批量制造中的应用，我们的一个存储器客户最近宣布，他们已经成功出货了100万个基于EUV技术的业界首批10纳米级DRAM模块。他们还表示，从明年第四代10纳米级D1a开始，EUV将在未来的DRAM中全面部署。
我们今年在35个系统上的EUV收入目标仍然是45亿左右，由此假设我们不会像之前提到的那样面临重大的供应需求风险。我们对EUV的利润率，我们继续在系统业务和服务业务上推动盈利。而且我们仍然有望在今年实现至少40%的系统毛利率，并在年底前实现EUV服务业务的盈亏平衡。
客户对EUV技术的信心增强，正转化为逻辑和存储器方面的EUV需求强劲。这反映在第一季度的强劲订单量，支持我们2021年的产量。正如之前的电话中提到的那样，我们目前正在努力实现2021年45到50个系统的产能，我们认为可以通过减少周期时间来实现。我们在下一代EUV技术High-NA方面继续取得进展，并有望在2022年实现初步开发系统的转移。
现在关于我们对本季度和全年的展望。根据目前的客户需求计划，在没有COVID中断的情况下，第二季度可以说是一个强劲的出货季，正如Roger提到的毛利率会有明显的提升。目前我们正在执行这个计划。
从全年来看，目前客户需求也很旺盛。从目前的出货计划来看，今年的出货量也会有一个很好的定位，可以实现全年的增长。但是，目前的COVID-19危机对全球GDP发展的终端市场、我们的制造能力和供应链的影响，还有很大的不确定性。而考虑到这些风险和不确定性，我们决定对二季度和2020年全年的业绩增长不给出正式的指导意见是谨慎的。
还是那句话，现在是一个前所未有的、充满挑战的时代，但我们会渡过难关。今天的世界看起来和三个月前有很大的不同。所以很难做出预测，我们当然也不会增加意见。我们继续每天都在看事实，并采取相应的行动。为了员工、社区和客户的安全，我们正在采取必要的措施，同时也在采取必要的风险缓解和财务措施。
我还想借此机会感谢ASML的整个团队和他们的家人，以及我们的许多合作伙伴，他们在这个困难时期挺身而出，支持我们的公司和我们的利益相关者。我看到了团队合作和令人难以置信的创造力，以确保我们能够继续工作，服务于我们的客户，同时保证我们的员工和合作伙伴的安全。尽管目前的环境，近期造成了明显的挑战和不确定性，但围绕创新和拓展新市场的积极行业势头进一步增强了我们对未来增长前景的信心。
基于此，我们很乐意接受您的提问。
问答环节
Q
谢谢你让我来接听电话 我的第一个问题是，我想问你，彼得，你看到第一季度的订单量非常大。你知道吗，如果你还记得一月份的时候，你说你希望储存器订单能在今年全年都有订单。是这些内存订单的到来导致了这种订单量？或者是其他原因，比如说客户担心他们无法从你们这里拿到工具，所以他们加快了订单的速度，把订单提前到了一月，这就是造成这种订单量的原因？我的第二个问题是，这不是后续问题，而是关于你们今年在EUV方面40%的毛利率指标，我的意思是，考虑到社交隔离，等等，你们甚至在制造领域也可能会实施相应政策吗。这是否会对周期时间和毛利率产生影响？谢谢你。
A
让我回答第一个问题。我认为订单强度，我想罗杰说过，大概三分之二的订单摄入量是逻辑，三分之一是储存器。所以，我不认为这是一个加速的东西。这是是我们所期望的。另外，我想我们观察到的是，我们的机器内存空间的利用率持续增加，所以这也是我们的预期。我不认为有拉动的因素。这些订单是为了支持我们2021年的前景，这也是计划中的。因此，基本上可以说这是对我们客户的技术路线图的确认，所以从这个意义上说是很好的。
关于40%的毛利率显示，周期时间的影响，我们已经能够控制住了。我提到过，我们确实看到工厂里的缺勤率增加，因为政府、卫生部门的指导意见，说如果你有一些像COVID-19的症状，你就应该呆在家里，即使是感冒的时候，人们也是这样做的，这实际上意味着我们工厂里确实有一些缺勤，但我们已经能够重新安排轮班模式。还有就是我们看到的是，有资格在工厂里工作的人，比如说从研发环境，他们现在也在工厂里工作，确保我们能够做到产出。所以我认为我们可以管理，我认为这不会影响到我们给你的40%的毛利率指标。
Q
我是瑞银集团的大卫 我只是想跟大家讨论一下Roger提出的一个问题 关于你们是如何支持你们的供应商基地的问题。你能给我们详细介绍一下你们在考虑什么吗？是否有任何特定的供应商，你可能会担心他们的业务中的某个特定的或其他部分，我想，他们的业务可能会受到严重的影响，我想，我们看到了一个非常突然的衰退。请介绍一下您打算如何支持您的供应商基地。
A
我认为我们几乎每天都在管理我们的供应，目前我们在供应链中看到的大多数情况都是模块的交付延迟，而且由于这些情况，比如说停产或原地待命的情况，我们需要找到不同的解决方案，导致零部件的延迟。然而，正如你所指出的，当这种情况持续较长时间，我们也可以看到，我们的一些供应商也会接触到其他行业，他们的处境可能与我们不同，他们可能会向我们寻求帮助，而这种帮助主要是要求预付款。
现在我们还没有看到这种情况，但我预计，如果这种情况持续的时间长了，他们就会来了，当我们的需求状况保持强劲的时候，他们就会要求预付款。话虽如此，但你必须看看我们完整的供应链，包括我们的客户。我的意思是，我们的供应也是如此。所以，我们当然也和客户讨论过，听着，我们需要从整体的角度来看待供应链的连续性。所以，如果我们需要预付货款，我需要客户预付货款。所以，几乎可以说，这几乎可以说是一个背靠背的环节，在潜在的融资需求方面，它是一个背靠背的环节。而且我很肯定，其中的一些会来，尤其是在那些领域，正如你所指出的那样，我们的一些供应商在其他行业中失去了大量的业务。
所以这就是我们现在的情况，我们还没有看到。我的意思是，我已经经历了足够长的时间，而且在其他一些危机中也经历过互联网泡沫破灭，然后是金融危机和911事件，我们在供应链中的一些潜在问题会出现，它就会发生。但同样，我们需要从一个整体的角度来看，从一个完整的供应链角度来看，我们的客户在其中也扮演着重要的角色，顺便说一下，我们正在和他们讨论，我认为这些讨论很好。因此，我非常肯定地认为，我们可以帮助我们供应链中的这些领域，这可能会成为未来的关键。
Q
还有就是关于研发方面的后续工作。正如你说的那样，很多人都在家里工作，我想你还没有关闭研发设施，因为我想你做的很多工作仍然需要进行物理测试，尤其是在High-NA的情况下和正在进行的工作。
A
是的，我想你真的谈到了物理测试，我的意思是在无尘室里做的，我们建立了模块，所以这就是无法辨认，我们谈到了这个问题。我的意思是，我们现在有非常严格的规定，我想说，几乎有两个月的时间了。而且他们在研发方面本身是有效的。就是当我们看最新的生产力数字的时候，我们每天都在关注这些数字。我想我们90%的研发工程师他们都是在家工作的。但是随着目前我们在创建虚拟团队和异地工作的可能性，我可以说，我看到的生产率数字让我很惊喜，无论是设计签约的数量，还是软件构建的数量，软件编译的数量，我们的IT基础设施都保持得很好，这也是我们准备的。所以说，情况很好。
而当我们看这些生产力的数字，实际上和我们开始在家办公之前看到的生产力数字非常相似，我认为这也是非常好的，这也要归功于我们员工的灵活性。你也可以从登录数据中看到，人们的工作时间更长。我的意思是，他们在同一时间登录，但他们登录的时间要晚得多。所以有很多人都是在晚上工作。我们会定期与全公司的经理们检查我们的工作情况，而且有很多虚拟的团队合作，甚至在周五下午的虚拟酒会上，他们都会坐在一起面对镜头，喝着啤酒。
Q
是的，谢谢。我是富国银行 我希望你能多给我们一些关于你报告中提到的，强劲的内存预订量的信息。你能帮我们了解一下，你是否开始看到需求主要由NAND或DRAM驱动？然后，你能帮我们了解一下EUV在内存预订量方面的情况吗？这是否也是本季度的一个驱动因素？
A
对，EUV，最后一个问题主要是逻辑。所以说，未来有很少的EUV订单到来，未来有很少的内存EUV订单到来，主要以逻辑为主。而强劲的内存订单是，实际上我刚才也说了，它们也是至少我们看到我们系统在内存领域的利用率的结果，无论是DRAM还是NAND，我们在去年第四季度末看到的谨慎的趋势，在整个第一季度的利用率上升的趋势一直持续到最近，直到上周。因此，趋势是向上的，这也解释了为什么内存预订量也在上升，因为客户也看到了这一点。
Q
然后你谈了很多关于，ASML在服务方面做了什么，以满足客户的需求。你有什么最新的想法吗，我想你说到2020年的服务收入将达到34亿欧元。我们是否应该考虑一下，比如说第一季度或3月的季度是今年服务业的低点？
A
是的，我想我们提到了为什么第一季度比我们的指导价低1亿左右，我们也给了你原因。是由于我们在特定的升级项目上的机器时间不足，因此，我们在第二季度的服务业绩将下降。除此以外，在安装基地的业务仍然看起来不错。因此，我们过去谈到的这个数字仍然具有现实意义，因为我们在整个通话中谈到的所有注意事项都是围绕着当前的不确定性。而34亿这个数字是我们在第四季度电话会议上谈到的数字，所以这也是我们刚才提到的一个很好的回忆。
Q
谢谢你接受我的提问 我想彼得，第一个问题是关于内存方面的问题。看上去前EUV的订单量比去年同期增长了80%，所以我很好奇。是NAND和DRAM的订单增加了吗？然后在最后一次通话中，你谈到了DRAM在下半年的强劲复苏的可能性。我很好奇你对这一潜在现实有什么看法？
A
是的，我认为技术难点，内存的摄入量是由DRAM驱动的，然后有一个注意事项，我们也确实看到一些从DRAM中转移出来的DRAM进入NAND。但我想说，如果一定要回答，说重点是什么，重点是DRAM。
Q
我的追问，你能直接说说你是如何考虑改善EUV的周期时间。作为其中的一部分，要想让你们每个季度的出货量达到两位数，你们需要做的是什么？我想，作为其中的一部分，我们是否应该考虑到客户在未来几个季度再次加快速度的可能性，因此，也许有一两个工具的收入会推迟到21年？谢谢你。
A
那么，关于最后一点，我的意思是，现在是4月15日，因为我不知道12月会发生什么事情。所以，这不是我们的客户今天告诉我们的。我们的客户今天告诉我们，他们想要的是35系统。关于周期时间的改善和我们的出货量达到两位数的能力，我们正在计划中，在没有任何供应链或产能中断的情况下，因为COVID的原因，我们将在这个季度，也就是2020年第二季度出货量达到两位数。所以，我们有这个能力。而当你看这个，假设客户有36台的数量是他们想要的，这不是每个季度9台，这不是它的工作方式。而且不管客户需要不需要，它都是可以的，因为是他们的代表时间安排决定了我们什么时候发货。
比如说一季度，我们只出货了4个系统。但我们计划在一季度的COVID-19影响6个，并不是说我们不能多做。只是，这也跟客户什么时候需要机器有关。所以我们在这个季度会做到两位数，实际上这意味着我们有能力，当然这对达到35的数字是非常重要的。我认为周期时间的减少是，也是之前的一个评论，你在工厂里有一些旷工现象。我们正在处理这个问题。我认为我们将按计划缩短周期时间，我们将有能力在今年完成35个系统。
Q
谢谢你接受我的问题，我有两个问题。第一个问题，Peter，在你能回答的范围内。您认为今年在DUV的出货量方面，以绝对的单位数还是相对于2019年来说，您认为您会在DUV的出货量方面有多少？
A
相对于2019年，你会发现这只是一个大概的说法。我不会指导你一个具体的DPV数。但是我们之前说过，我已经说过一段时间了，当你看EUV的时候，EUV正在蚕食你可以说多个层级别。所以在2020年DPV系统会有一个减少，而这将会被EUV的销售数量所弥补，这也是我们一直以来说的逻辑。EUV的存在是为了吞噬多个图案或层级。
现在到底会是多少，现在多少会有些低。不会很大，但这是大势所趋。这是未来的一个趋势。你也可以从我们2025年资本市场日的信息中看到，2025年的DPV数字比过去低，这是因为EUV将取代这些数字。
Q
然后作为我的跟进，如果我看一下你们过去两个季度的内存出货量，如果我看一下你们的内存出货量并进行比较，与中国的销售量非常相似。那么A，你们过去两个季度的内存出货量是否主要来自中国，B，你们预计未来几个季度的趋势如何？
A
好吧，就像你知道的那样，我们实际上提到了，第一季度的出货量受到了中国COVID-19危机的影响，尤其是武汉，正如我说的那样，内存客户在武汉。那么，如果你能想象得到，我们没有向那个客户发货。另一个客户按照计划拿了很少的工具，但我们出货的大部分东西当然是在中国以外的地方。
Q
我明白，就像COVID-19的近期情况来看，显然对你和你的价值链没有那么糟糕，你管理得很好，物流中断和供应方面的情况也很好。当然，我下一个关心的问题是接下来会发生什么，我听到你说，我们几乎没有什么能见度，所以不可能做出近期的预测。所以，让我们假设，在今年下半年，鉴于PC，服务器和智能手机同比下降20％，25％，如果发生在高的水平。你认为你的客户会受到怎样的影响，你认为这对ASML有什么影响？而且我有两个具体的问题。一个是在这种情况下，你的客户会不会推掉EUV订单，或者你认为他们是否需要接受订单，因为他们需要确保技术的供应？我想到的第二个问题是，DUV方面的急剧下降的风险怎么办，因为我想象，如果6个月前推出计划的时候，量没有达到预期的程度，我预计随着节点迁移的继续，DUV工具会有很多重复使用的情况？
A
我先来回答你的问题。它对ASML在某一个场景下有什么影响？基本上，我无法回答这个问题。我的意思是，如果我说那是你的工作，不是我的工作，是的，我可能会有点小气。所以，我想回答的是，如果你不知道你要去哪里，你最好灵活一点，这就是我们要组织的。我们在组织供应链的灵活性。大家都知道，80%以上都是在他们的供应链上。这意味着，我们已经像每一次危机一样，我们几乎没有看到过取消。我们看到的都是推货。
所以，这基本上意味着你会看到在供应链上的营运资金的融资，这也是特别重要的，因为我刚才回答了一个问题，你想在供应链上做什么，我认为这是一个完整的供应链问题，包括我们的客户。我的意思是，他们最终也离不开供应。所以这是营运资金的问题，我觉得这个问题是可以管理的。我觉得从灵活性的角度来看，我们这里有很多的成本灵活性，我们在劳动力上的可变成本，在这里有很多的可变成本。这就像我们的人的可变收入一样，当然当业务量下降的时候，这个也会下降。
我觉得EUV的订单不会有太多的推送。我们的客户现在跟我们说的，我好好听他们说的时候，他们并不盲目。他们看到的是，对GDP的影响是衰退的，这很可能会对消费者的消费支出和消费电子产生影响。他们注意到的是，我们的客户也不盲目，他们对前沿逻辑，包括5纳米和7纳米的需求仍然很强烈。我的意思是说，我们的客户每一次，每一个星期都会跟我们说，请你们的前沿机的出货量保持在目标上。
好吧，如果数据中心会要求减少25%的服务，顺便说一下，如果你想一想，这可能是很糟糕的事情实际上已经发生了，因为我们需要更多的数据中心容量，而不是更少，然后高计算就会去那里。所以，我觉得推掉EUV的订单，它总是可以发生的。我不认为会有很大的影响。我们并没有计划出现世界末日的场景，整个世界经济崩盘的情况，我们没有计划这样做。我认为这也不可能发生。我认为这种可能性很低。
所以，总的来说，我觉得我们已经足够灵活了。我觉得EUV以客户需要的前沿解决方案为核心的EUV会相对安全，我觉得DPV工具的复用的故事，在每一个周期里都在讲。但是你需要意识到，当你看前沿的时候，你需要意识到，不光是EUV，它是前沿的DPV，但是你需要DPV不是那么多的地缘收缩，你需要DPV，你需要它来叠加。而这对于那些新的前沿设备来说是非常重要的。
所以叠加的要求是NXE2050，这将是我们的前沿浸入式工具与1980型的明显不同，因为1980型的我们将无法做到2050应该做的事情，我们要确保它们能够支持我们的前沿节点。所以重用会受到限制，这只是跟DPV工具对前沿节点的要求不一样，对更老的版本的要求也更难实现。
Q
Peter，回到我们进入的话题，我还是很困惑。你谈到了改善供应链的问题。你说到收入的连续增长可能超过50%，但你没有提供一个指导，甚至没有提供第二季度的指导。外面是什么，而我们4月才过了一半。考虑到未来几个月的情况，外面是什么让你不舒服？我问的不是下半年的情况，我问的只是Q2的情况，我有一个跟进。
A
如果我完全理解你的问题，Mehdi，因为我们总是说，我们在供应链上有很长的交货期，这对于像ZEISS这样的关键供应品来说是如此。最后，我们有成千上万的供应商，其中一些供应商的交货期要短得多。我们在第一季度的EUV中，有几周的时间延迟了，因为有一家供应商不能提供环，这不是我们需要的最先进的部件，但如果你没有，你就没有。所以，这就是我们担心的地方。就是分层的供应链，这个分层的供应链，我们不一定能看得到。
我们有来自马来西亚、墨西哥等地的分层供应商，他们向我们的二线和一线供应商供货。如果供应基本上停止了，那么即使是交货期相对较短的产品，也不能按时交货，我们就会有延误。我认为最终我们得到了这些零件，只是延误了。如果我们告诉你并给你一个数字，而我们在一些交货期较短的零件上出现了明显的延迟，我们就无法发货，这可能会造成很大的损失。你可能还记得，现在一台3500C是1.3亿欧元的工具，这是一个很大的数字。而且我不想给你一个从X亿到Y亿的范围，那是没有意义的。所以，这就是它的来源。
我认为这真的是基于我们在第一季度的经验，我们在那里能够管理好它，但我们确实看到了一些延迟。由于我们无法判断这些政府命令在世界不同地区的影响，我们无法评估这种风险是什么，但它是存在的，因为我们已经看到了它。我们已经能够用大量的创造力来管理它。但这并不能给我任何保证或确定我们能不能永远管理好它。所以，这就是它的来源。
Q
还有，如果你能给我们介绍一下Hermes多光束的发货情况，我想测试版的工具应该是在一季度就会发货给客户的，那边的更新情况如何？
A
是的，我认为它已经准备好了。它是在包装，然后在海湾地区的庇护所， 因为它来自圣何塞，已经停止了工具。所以它是一个由卡车装载起来，但他们不得不返回。
Q
但你认为二季度货车会不会恢复到目的地，还是会有更多的？
A
我的意思是，我们现在正在做的是，我们正在评估我们和这个特定工具是否属于关键业务的定义。实际上，我们正在研究，有什么可能性能让这个工具真正出货。我很希望能尽快发货，因为它已经准备好了，客户也想要，所以让我们看看情况如何。
Q
我有一个关于服务业务的问题..... ...我想更好地了解一下。所以我猜你们是可以做一些远程业务的。但你能不能告诉我们，你们认为有多少收入会回来，有多少收入可能会在第一季度损失，然后如果像我们离开庇护所，比方说早些时候，它将如何工作。那会不会是大量的需求被压抑，你会不会看到需求增加，或者是服务业务实际上受到了冲击，部分收入会损失？
A
我想我们一季度的收入，米奇，正如我们提到的那样，我们一季度损失的收入大概是1亿左右，这主要和某些升级有关。我想说的是，这甚至与COVID-19没有关系，特别是与我们没有从客户那里得到足够的机器时间有关。所以，我们第一季错过的那笔收入会让我们在第二季度获得。在我看来，几乎没有任何疑问，我们会在第二季度获得这些收入。除此以外，我认为，就我们现在所看到的情况来看，我们没有看到任何异常情况，所以在这个阶段，我们仍然可以达到我们在上一季度谈到的34亿美元的IBM收入。
正如我们在视频中也提到的，也正如Peter在介绍中提到的，我们正在部署新的技术。所以，当然，我们的能力不如过去，在旅行限制什么的之前，由于明显的原因，我们让人从威尔顿等地的维尔德霍恩去到客户所在地，去到客户所在地，我们的能力也不如过去。但是，通过使用人工、使用虚拟现实、增强现实技术，我们能够用我们在不同中心的专业知识支持庞大的本地支持团队。通过这种方式，到目前为止，我们认为我们仍然有能力继续提供我们所需要的服务和升级工作。
实际上，我们正在准备，作为一个原型项目，我们如何通过增强现实和HoloLens的远程支持。基本上，人们在6000公里外的地方进行实际的服务行动，然后我们现在有了3D增强现实技术的支持，服务工程师经过6个月的培训，通常需要经过2到3年的培训，现在可以在6000公里外的专家的支持下进行操作和服务行动。而且基本上是给他们提供了3D图像，他们应该如何做服务动作，而且效果很好。所以，这也是让人惊讶的事情。而且实际上，我们的服务水平，我们在工具的维护和服务方面，我们所有的服务水平都保持了上去，我觉得这是一个非常好的成绩。
Q
Peter，可能我这边有一个问题，关于你提到的服务，到目前为止，你们尝试做了很多远程工作和本地团队协助维护和升级的服务，我想请问一下，你是怎么做的？在EUV的安装部分，我们应该如何思考？你们是否有团队在客户的工厂或客户所在地，确保EUV安装至少在Q2期间，如果不取消限制的话，仍然可以按照计划进行？
A
是的，这个问题问得很好。幸运的是，我们有三个主要的站点，我们在这里做EUV，这也是我们大部分服务工程师的站点。我的意思是说，我们要考虑到成千上万的人。所以，我们有很多的经验在那里。而这正是远程支持的作用所在。我们确实会派人到全球各地去，但我们有数百人，数百人在那里出差。现在可能不超过50、60人。他们必须进入两个星期的检疫。他们必须获得特殊的旅行签证。所以，我们需要比过去更严格的计划和准备。而这就是我们设置专家的地方。但是我认为很多这些服务行动，并不是真正的顶级专家级别的服务行动，都是通过我刚才提到的那种新颖的远程支持技术来完成的。所以这两者结合在一起，我想我们会把所有的安装都做起来。实际上我们已经能够做到了，而且我们已经做到了。所以说，是的，我们还是会做旅行。它不是如果回到CRO，但如果回到CRO，那就不一样了，但它是我们能够做的一小部分，但它是可行的。
Q
也许还有一个后续的问题要问罗杰。罗杰，在服务方面，你提到全年34亿的资金仍在望眼欲穿。你能不能帮我们了解一下，其中有多少是EUV，特别是EUV，还有EUV服务的亏损有多少？我知道你提到了盈亏平衡，希望在今年年底前实现。因为我想了解的是，去年或今年EUV对服务毛利率的拖累有多大，只是为了帮助我们知道未来的数字应该是多少。
A
是的，让我非常、非常简短地说一下。所以，今年，我认为季度与季度相比，如果你把上个季度，也就是第四季度与今天相比，可能会占到毛利率的0.5%。所以今年EUV的改善将占到今年毛利率的0.5%左右。所以这个问题的答案是这样的。总的来说，如果你看3.4的话，大概是50、50左右，如果你喜欢的话，定期的服务和维护和升级以及定期的服务和维护，EUV还是相当少的，当然考虑到DPV的安装基数要大得多，但是对毛利率的影响大概是0.5%左右。
Q
我只是对你们对内存工具利用率的评论做一个后续跟进。彼得，你说你从第四季度末到一季度的时候就看到了改善，这个季度也是如此。我只是想知道，你觉得这个行业还有多少弹性可以通过提高利用率来继续增长产量，而根据目前的趋势，他们什么时候才能接近完全的利用率？很明显，我知道我们有全球的注意事项，但如果趋势继续下去的话， 我们有多大程度上接近满负荷使用，他们需要重新开始增加产能？
A
我的意思是，我认为这将是这个季度。当我看一下趋势，它将是 -- -- 很接近。他们仍有一些利用不足的问题要解决，但这一季度会有。
纪要英文原稿：
Skip Miller
Thank you, operator. Welcome everyone. This is Skip Miller, Vice President of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today on the call is ASML's CEO, Peter Wennink and our CFO, Roger Dassen. The subject of today's call is ASML's 2020 first quarter results. The length of this call will be 60 minutes and questions will be taken in the order they are received. This call is also being broadcasting live over the Internet at asml.com. A transcript of management's opening remarks and a replay of the call will be available on our Web site shortly following the conclusion of this call.
Before we begin, I'd like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the Safe Harbor statement contained in today's press release and presentations found on our Web site at asml.com, and in ASML's report on Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Peter Wennink for a brief introduction.
Peter Wennink
Thank you, Skip. Welcome, everyone. I thank you for joining us for our Q1 2020 results conference call. I hope all of you and your families are healthy and safe. And before we start our normal quarterly results review, I would like to first talk about the topic on everybody's mind, which is the COVID-19 pandemic and the situation.
While these are unprecedented and challenging times and the COVID-19 pandemic affects all of us, our primary goal at ASML continues to be to ensure as best as we can that our colleagues and their families stay safe. Our second goal is to ensure that we continue to serve our customers and to secure the delivery of our product roadmap, including the continuity of our supply. We have been taking and continue to take precautionary measures to limit the risks. Most of our non-manufacturing employees now work from home and travel is restricted. In China, our colleagues are returning to the office but also there we remain vigilant.
In our own facilities, we have implemented the restricted access to our manufacturing facilities worldwide and in particular, our clean rooms to ensure our colleagues can work safely. We put in place measures to help ensure isolation between shifts. We've also implemented additional safety and cleaning protocols to minimize contamination risks. We work closely with our customers, suppliers and partners, to share information and determine best practices. We see a lot of creativity, resilience and dedication at ASML and the industry and overall, as we work to manage through this crisis.
To-date, we have experienced the limited impact on ASML's manufacturing capability. Although, there have been additional challenges with absenteeism, transportation and support logistics that we have had to manage. Some of the quarantine requirements have had an impact on our efficiency while travel restrictions have posed the challenge for installs and major upgrades. We're working with our customers to plan ahead and find greater solutions, such as the use of remote monitoring, augmented reality solutions and diagnostic technologies to aid in the service and repair of systems.
With regard to our supply chain, as some of our suppliers have experienced temporary closures resulted from governmental lockdown and shelter in place orders. At this stage, we've either been able to work around these temporary disruptions but the closure has been resolved. We are managing risk via alternative sourcing and again a lot of creativity. We're closely monitoring the status and we'll use safety stock as much as possible to ensure minimum interruption.
At this point in time, we've been able to find solutions for these challenges. Regarding customer demand, we’ve currently not seen a reduction in demand this year and we have seen a strong order intake. I will talk more on this later. On cash management, although we have a very healthy balance sheet, as well as flexibility in our cost structure, we feel it's prudent to preserve cash, should the situation continue for an extended period of time, not just around our operations but also in order to be able to support our suppliers as best we can in these extraordinary circumstances, and Roger will talk more on the detailed actions.
You will all understand that in this environment it’s difficult to determine how things will develop, how long it will last and the impact this will have on the global GDP development that can affect our entire industry. We're taking the necessary steps in terms of safety, risk mitigation and financial measures to best manage through these challenging times. It's very encouraging to see the creativity, resilience and dedication at ASML and the industry overall.
Now I would like to turn our normal quarterly results process before we begin the Q&A session, Roger and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the first quarter. Roger will start with a review of our Q1 financial performance, [thereafter] comments on our short term outlook. And I will complete introduction with some additional comments on the current business environment and our future business outlook. Thank you. Roger?
Roger Dassen
Thank you, Peter. Welcome everyone. I hope you're all safe and healthy. And I will first review the first quarter financial results and then make some comments on the second quarter of 2020. I would also provide more detail around measures we are taking with regards to cash management.
Net sales came in at €2.4 billion below our original guidance of €3.1 billion to €3.3 billion, which was primarily related to COVID-19 impact. Net system sales of €1.6 billion was again heavily weighted towards logic at 73% with the remaining 27% from memory, clearly showing the continued strength of logic business. We actually shipped four EUV systems in Q1, but we're only able to recognize revenue on two of them, which I will explain in more detail later.
Install base management sales for the quarter came in at €857 million. This was around €100 million lower than guided due to lack of access to machine time, as well as a delay and acceptance of upgrades. We expect these upgrades to translate to revenue in Q2.
Let me provide a bit more detail on the items that occurred in the quarter that resulted in a system revenue shift of around €700 million, consisting of a DPV related revenue shift over €200 million and EUV related revenue shift of over €500 million, primarily related to COVID-19 impacts. First, we experienced some delays in DPV shipments to customers in Wuhan, China, as well as other customers due to operational and travel restrictions regarding COVID-19. We are working with our customers to prepare for these shipments in the next quarters.
Second we experienced some issues in our supply chain as a result of a temporary disruption from EUV component suppliers that encountered operational restrictions due to COVID-19 regulations. These supply chain issues have been solved for now. Also, we experienced longer-than initially planned EUV cycle times for the first NXE3500C models in final configuration, primarily driven by the complex deployment of inline 10 refill as part of the modular vessel.
Cycle time related to this aspect is now being reduced every week, and we are on track to achieve in the aspired cycle time reduction envisaged for the end of this year. As you know, this is an important element in achieving the capability of 45 to 50 EUV tools in 2021 and beyond. As a result of the longer-than-expected cycle times, as well as COVID-19 related supply issues, we saw some delays in EUV shipments for the quarter, resulting in fewer system shipments than originally planned.
Third, due to concerns around the continued ability to ship systems in the current circumstances, some customers have asked us to expedite the delivery of EUV systems in the quarter by shipping the systems before the normal factory acceptance tests, with the implication of this is a delay in our revenue recognition as final acceptance will now take place after a successful installation at the customer sites. We expect the revenue that we were not able to recognize for Q1 as a result of the issues listed above to shift to Q2 and Q3 of this year.
Gross margin for the quarter was 45.1%, also below our original guidance, primarily due to a combination of delayed field upgrades, as well as delayed DPV systems revenue related to COVID-19 impact. Overall, operating expenses came within guidance with R&D expenses at €544 million and SG&A expenses at €130 million. Turning to the balance sheet, €507 million worth of shares were repurchased in Q1. We ended last quarter with cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at a level of €4.1 billion.
Moving to the order book, Q1 system bookings came in at a strong €3.1 billion, including €1.5 billion from 11 EUV systems. Logic order intake were 66% of the total value with the remaining 34% for memory, again reflecting the continued strong logic demand for leading edge lithography for this year and next year, but also indicating a recovery of the demand for memory. Net income in Q1 was €391 million, representing 16% of net sales and resulting in an EPS of €0.93.
With that, I would like to make some comments on Q2 of 2020. As Peter mentioned, we have not seen a reduction in demand this year and we continued to see a strong order intake, up around 28% from Q4. Based on current plans without any COVID interruption, Q2 can be a strong shipment quarter with revenue up potentially over 50% from Q1 and a significant improvement of gross margin. We are still planning to execute to current plan. However, due to significant uncertainty in this COVID-19 environment, we decided it is prudent to refrain from giving formal guidance for Q2.
Finally, on cash management. Although, we have a very healthy balance sheet, as well as flexibility in our cost structure, we like many of our peers and customers, are dependent on the short and longer-term implications of the COVID-19 outbreak. Due to these uncertainties, we feel it is prudent to preserve cash should the situation continue for an extended period of time, not just for our own operations but also in order to be able to support our suppliers as best we can in these extraordinary circumstances.
We have decided not to execute any share buybacks in Q2 2020. This decision follows the pause and the execution of the program in the first quarter, after having already performed share buybacks under the new program for an amount of approximately €507 million. The previously announced three year share buyback program of up to €6 billion to be executed in the 2020, 2022 timeframe is still in place.
We have also implemented measures to limit our growth in the workforce. Non-business critical vacancies have been put on hold. We continue to hire for business critical positions. This way, our workforce will grow less than originally planned this year. We are also postponing any non-business critical OpEx and CapEx. However, we will continue to invest in the development of future technology roadmaps, including High-NA at an unadjusted pace in order to allow our customers the continuation of their roadmaps once the situation has been normalized.
As communicated last quarter, ASML has submitted a proposal at its 2020 Annual General Meeting of shareholders to declare a total dividend for 2019 of €2.40 per ordinary share. Recognizing the interim dividend of €1.05 paid in November 2019, this leads to a final dividend payment of €1.35 to be paid in the second quarter. This is a 14% increase compared to the 2018 dividend. The 2020 Annual General Meeting of shareholders will take place on April 22nd in Veldhoven.
With that, I'd like to turn the call back over to Peter.
Peter Wennink
Thank you. Roger. As Roger highlighted, our order intake is strong and we have not yet seen any significant push outs or cancellations this year. Many investments of our customers are strategic and support their technology roadmaps, lifeline for our leading edge customers. These strategic investments are therefore primarily related to leading edge equipment, such as EUV and high end immersion scanners, requiring longer lead times and qualification schedules. This was also confirmed recently by leading edge customers that have also told us that they see an unabated demand for leading edge devices at least throughout this year.
Keep in mind the lead time and the qualification of lithography systems are the longest in the fab and customers will not want to jeopardize any adjustment to their technology and capacity ramps that will negatively affect their ability to keep serving the leading edge customers. As the current situation is very fluid, we’re meeting with our customers on a more frequent basis to understand any changes they may be seeing regarding demand outlook.
In general, most customers are still indicating that they are continuing relatively normal fab operations so far. Logic customers are currently continuing to ramp their seven and five nanometer nodes in support of end market application like 5G, AI and high performance compute. There are also some positive sign being reported on data center demand, as well as demand from notebook and communication infrastructure, driven by the significant increase in work from home and virtual learning activities.
These applications drive the demand for both Logic and Memory. However, it can also be expected that consumer related electronics, for example, smartphones may be under stress, in addition to the potential negative impact the COVID-19 crisis will have on GDP. We expect install base business to continue to scale with growing install base numbers and will also see EUV contribute to service revenue as these systems start running wafers in volume manufacturing.
We currently our plans for upgrades at several customers, however, with the realization there is a supply and a demand risk in the current environment. Our bookings show an increase in memory over the prior quarter driven by DPV while logic continues to show a transition from DPV to EUV, ordering as customers’ confidence in EUV increases, translating into more layers in logic production.
On the EUV, along with the industry, ASML continues to make progress in ramping EUV technology in high volume manufacturing, as was recently showcased at the SPIE lithography conference in February. Our customers continue to adopt and ramp EUV in high volume manufacturing in both logical memory, and one of our memory customers recently announced that they have successfully shipped 1 million of the industry's first 10-nanometer class DRAM modules based of the EUV technology. They also stated EUV will be fully deployed in future generation of DRAM starting with its fourth generation 10-nanometer D1a next year.
We continue to target EUV revenue of around 4.5 billion on 35 systems this year, thereby assuming that we will not face any significant supply demand risks as mentioned before. Our margins for EUV, we continue to drive profitability in both the systems, as well as the service business. And we're still on track to achieve at least 40% system gross margin this year and breakeven with our EUV service business by the end of the year.
Increased customer confidence in EUV technology is translating to strong EUV demand in both logic and memory. This is reflected in the strong order flow in the first quarter in support of our 2021 output. As mentioned in earlier calls, we're currently working towards the capacity of 45 to 50 systems in 2021, which we feel can be achieved through reductions in cycle time. We continue to make progress on our next generation EUV technology, High-NA, and are on track to shift the initial development systems in 2022.
Now regarding our outlook on the quarter and on the year. Based on the current customer demand plans and without any COVID interruption, Q2 can be a strong shipment quarter with significant improvement of gross margin as Roger mentioned. We're currently in execution of this plan.
On the full year, customer demand is currently strong as well. The current shipment plans would position as well for another year of growth. However, there is a significant uncertainty about how the current COVID-19 crisis will impact the global GDP development end markets, our manufacturing capability and supply chain. And in light of these risks and uncertainties, we decided it's prudent to refrain from giving formal guidance for Q2 and for the full year 2020.
Again, these are unprecedented and challenging times but we will get through it. The world looks a lot different today than it did three months ago. So it is hard to make predictions and we’re certainly not adding opinions. We continue to look at the facts day-by-day and act accordingly. We're taking the necessary steps for the safety of our employees, the community and our customers, as well as the necessary risk mitigation and financial steps.
I would like also to take the opportunity to thank the entire ASML team and their families, as well as our many partners who stepped up in these demonic times in support of our company and our stakeholders. I've seen great examples of teamwork and incredible creativity to make sure that we can continue our work, serving our customers, while keeping our people and partners safe. Despite the fact of the current environment provides clearly near-term challenges and uncertainties, the positive industry momentum around innovation and expanding new markets further strengthens our confidence in our future growth scenarios.
With that, we'd be happy to take your questions.
Question-and-Answer Session
Sandeep Deshpande
Sandeep Deshpande, JP Morgan. Thanks for having me on the call. I have -- my first question to you, Peter, is that you've seen very great order strength in the first quarter. Is this order strength essentially, you know what if you remember in January it said that you’re hoping the memory orders would come in through the year. It was these memory orders coming in which caused this order strength? Or was it something else like, customers were worried that they couldn’t -- they may not get tools from you, and so they expedited their orders to and brought them forward from later in the year, which is what caused this order strength? And my second question, which is a follow, not a follow-up but with regard to your 40% gross margin indication in EUV for the year is, I mean, given the social distancing, et cetera, associated which you maybe implementing even in manufacturing. Will that not have an impact on the cycle times and thus the gross margin? Thank you.
Peter Wennink
Let me answer this first question. I think the order strength and I think Roger said it, about two thirds of the order intake was logic and one third was memory. So I don't think it is an acceleration of it. It is something that we would, that we expected. Also driven by, I think what we observed as a continued increase in utilization in the memory space of our machines, so that actually fits in quite nicely. I don't think there were pull-ins either. These orders are there to support our outlook for 2021 and this was planned. So basically, you could say it's more a confirmation of the technology roadmap that our customers have in front of them, so in that sense good.
On the gross margin indication of 40%, the cycle time impact, we've been able to manage. I mentioned it, we did see an increase in absenteeism in the factories because of the guidelines that people followed by the government, the health authorities, saying if you have symptoms like some of the COVID-19 symptoms, you should stay at home, which people did even when they had a cold, which actually meant that we did have indeed some shortages in the factory, but we've been able to reorder shift patterns. And also what we're seeing is that people that are eligible to work in the factory, for instance, from R&D environment they are now also working in the factory to make sure that we can do the output. So I think we can manage and I don't think it will have an impact on the 40% gross margin indication that we gave you.
David Mulholland
It’s David from UBS. Just following up on one of the commons that Roger made in terms of how you're looking to I guess, in some respect, support your supplier base. Can you just give us a little bit more detail about what you're considering there? And are there any particular suppliers that you might be worried about where a particular or other part of their business might be, I guess, heavily autos exposed that we’ve seen a very sudden downturn. Just a little more color on how you're planning to support your supplier base.
Peter Wennink
I think we are managing our supplies almost on a day-to-day basis and most of what we see in the supply chain currently are delays in delivery of modules and as a result of those, let's say lockdown situations or shelter-in-place situation where we need to find different solutions leading to delay of parts. However, as you pointed out, when this situation lasts longer, we also could see that some of our suppliers that are also exposed to other industries that they're going to be not in in the perhaps somewhat more enviable position where we are, they might be looking for help from our side and that help would largely be requests for prepayments.
Now we don't see that yet but I would expect if this lasts longer that it would come and they want some prepayments on orders when our demand profile stays as strong as it is. Having said that, you have to look at our integral supply chain which includes our customers. I mean, what is true for our supply is also true for us. So we have of course also in discussion with our customers to say, listen, we need to look at the continuity of the supply chain from an integral point of view. So if we need to prepay supplies, I need pre-payments from our customers. So it is almost, you could say, it's a back-to-back link in terms of potential financing requests. And I'm pretty sure that some of them will come, especially in those areas where, as you pointed out, some of our suppliers are losing significant business in other industries.
So this is what we are, we don't see it yet. And I mean I've been around long enough and also in some other crisis going back to the Internet bubble burst and then the financial crisis and that 9/11 that we were in the supply chain some potential issues will pop up, it will just happen. But again, we need to look this from an integral point of view, from an integral supply chain point of view and our customers play a significant role there also, which by the way we are in discussion with them and I think these are good discussions. So I'm pretty positive that we can help those areas in our supply chain, which could become critical going forward.
David Mulholland
And just one follow up on the R&D side of the business. As you said as many as kind are working from home, I presume you haven't closed on R&D facilities, because I guess a lot of the work you do still needs to be I guess physical tests, particularly in the case of High-NA and work that's going on there.
Peter Wennink
Yes, I think you really talk about the physical tests I mean that is done in clean rooms and we build modules, so that's [Indiscernible] and we talked about this. I mean, we have very strict regulations there now almost for, I would say, almost for two months. And they are effective on the R&D side itself. It is when we look at the latest productivity numbers, which we follow on day-to-day basis. I think 90% of our R&D engineers they work from home. But with the current possibilities that we have in creating virtual teams and working offsite, I can say that I'm pleasantly surprised with the productivity numbers that I see, whether it's the number of design signups, whether it's the number of software builds, the software compilations, our IT infrastructure is holding up very well, which we prepared by the way. So that's going well.
And when we look at those productivity numbers, they actually are very similar to the productivity numbers that we saw before starting to work at home, which I think is very good, which is also attribute to the flexibility of our people. You see also in the log on numbers that people make much longer hours. I mean, they log on the same time but they log off much later. So there's a lot of working in evening. And we check very regularly with our managers across the company on how we are doing and there's a lot of virtual teamwork going on, even leading to virtual drinks on Friday afternoon, where they all sit together in front of the camera with a glass of beer.
Joe Quatrochi
Yes, thanks. It's Wells Fargo. I was hoping you could kind of give us some more color on the strong memory bookings that you've reported. Can you help us understand, are you starting to see demand largely driven by NAND or DRAM? And then to the extent that you can help us understand what was EUV in terms of the memory bookings. Was that also a driver this quarter?
Peter Wennink
Yes, EUV, the last question is, it's really logic. So, very few EUV orders that will come, very few EUV orders for Memory and that will come, so it is predominantly Logic. And the strong memory bookings are, and I actually said it earlier, they also the result of what at least we’re seeing in terms of utilization of our systems in the memory space, both in that DRAM and in NAND, the trend, the cautious trend that we saw at the end of Q4 of last year has continued in terms of increased utilization throughout Q1 until very recently until last week. So the trends are upward, so that that explains why memory bookings are going up also, because customers see this also.
Joe Quatrochi
And then you talked a lot about, what ASML is doing in terms of services to meet your customers need. Is there any kind of updated thoughts you can give us on, I think you talked about €3.4 billion for revenue for 2020 for services. And should we think about, like the first quarter or March quarter being kind of the low point for services this year?
Roger Dassen
Yes, I think we mentioned why Q1 was about 100 million below our guidance, and we gave you the reason for that. It is the lack of machine time that we had on particular upgrades that we were doing, and as a result of that that will that will fall into Q2. Other than that in the install base business still look good. So the number that we talked about in the past is a number that has still relevance with all the caveats that we talk about in the entire call around the current uncertainty. And the 3.4 billion is the number that we talked about on the Q4 call, so that's a good recollection of what we mentioned there.
C. J. Muse
Yes, Evercore ISI. Good afternoon and good morning. Thank you for taking the question. I guess Peter, first question just to follow up on the memory side of things. It looks like ex-EUV, your orders were up like 80% Q-on-Q and so curious on that front. Is that more NAND versus DRAM? And then on the last call, you talked about optionality to stronger DRAM recovery into the second half of the year. I'm curious what your thoughts are as it relates to that potential reality?
Peter Wennink
Yes, I think [Technical Difficulty], the memory intake is driven by DRAM and then with the caveat that we do also see some relocation out of DRAM into NAND. But I would say if you would have to answer and say what's the emphasis, the emphasis is on DRAM.
C. J. Muse
My follow-up, can you speak directly to how you're thinking about cycle time improvements on EUV. And as part of that, what will it take to get the ability for you to have double-digit shipments on a quarterly basis, which it looks like you need to do to hit that 35 unit forecast? And I guess as part of that, should we be thinking about the potential for customers to expedite again in the coming quarters and therefore perhaps maybe revenue on one or two tools gets delayed into '21? Thank you.
Peter Wennink
Well, on the last point, I mean, its April 15 as I don't know what's going to happen in December. So that's not what our customers tell us today. Our customers tell us today that they want the 35 systems. On the cycle time improvement and our ability to ship double-digit numbers, we are planning and without any supply chain or capacity disruptions because of COVID, we will ship double digit numbers in this quarter, in Q2 of 2020. So we have that capability. And when you look at this and let's say customers have a number of 36 units that they want, it's not 9, 9, 9, 9, every quarter, that's not how it works. And it works whether the customers need it, because it's their rep schedule that is going to determine when we ship.
For instance in Q1, we only shipped four systems. But what we plan to be for the COVID-19 impact 6 in Q1, not that we couldn't make more. It just, it also has to do with when the customers need the machines. So we will do double-digit in this quarter and actually it means that we have the capability, which is of course very important to get to the 35 number. I think the cycle time reductions was, and was one earlier comment, you have some absenteeism in the factory. We're dealing with that. I think we'll get to the cycle time reductions as planned and we will have the capability to do 35 systems this year.
Krish Sankar
It’s Krish from Cowen. Thanks for taking my question, I have two of them. First one, Peter, to the extent you can answer this. What do you think you would ship in terms of DUV unit this year in absolute unit numbers or relative to 2019?
Peter Wennink
Relative to 2019, you will see that's just a general comment. I’m not going to guide you on a specific DPV number. But as we said before and I’ve said for some time now that when you look at EUV, EUV is cannibalizing you could say multiple patterning layers. So there will be a reduction of DPV systems in 2020, and that will be more than compensated by the sales number in EUV, and that's logical that's what we've always said. EUV is there to cannibalize multiple pattern or layers.
Now how much that in the end will be is going to be somewhat now lower. It’s not going to be significant, but that is the trend. It's a trend going forward. As you can also see from our 2025 capital markets day information where you also see that in 2025 the DPV numbers are lower than what they used to be and that's because EUV is going to replace those.
Krish Sankar
And then as my follow up, if I look at your -- for the last two quarters, if I look at your memory shipments and compare, it's very similar to the sales into China. So A, is most of your memory shipment in the last two quarters coming mainly from China and B, how do you expect that to trend over the next couple of quarters?
Peter Wennink
Well, it's as you know and is that we actually mentioned that, the shipments in Q1 were impacted by the COVID-19 crisis in China, especially Wuhan where you know as I said, memory customer there. Well, if you can imagine, we didn't ship anything to that customer. The other customer took a few tools according to plan but the majority of course of everything that we ship was outside China.
Pierre Ferragu
It’s Pierre at New Street. So Peter and Roger from your prepared remarks, I understand like the near-term of COVID-19 plays out clearly not so bad for you and your value chain, and you’re managing very well logistics disruption and or like the supply side of the story. Now of course, my next concern is what happens next and I hear you that we have very little visibility so it's very, it’s impossible to make like a near-term forecast. But my question would be like what is question. So let's assume that in the second half of the year, given for PCs, servers and smartphones are down 20%, 25% year-on-year and if that happens at the high level. How do you see your clients impacted and how do you see that’s impacting ASML? And I have two specific like question marks in mind. One is in that kind of scenario would your clients push out EUV orders, or do you think they need to take orders anyway, because they need to secure supply of the technology? And then the second one I had in mind was what about the very steep decline or risk in DUV, because I imagine that if volumes are not where they were expected when roll out plans were made six months ago, I would expect a lot of reuse of the DUV tools as node migrations continue?
Peter Wennink
Let me first answer your question. How has it impact ASML on a certain scenario? Basically, I couldn't answer that. I mean I could be a bit mean if I say that's your work, not mine, yes. So, but what I would answer is that, if you don't know where you're going, you'd better be flexible, and this is what we're organizing. We're organizing for flexibility in the supply chain. As you know, 80% or 80% plus is in their supply chain. That means that we've been like with like with every crisis we hardly ever saw cancellations. We saw push outs.
So it basically means you would be looking at in the supply chain financing of working capital, which is also particularly important in the context of the answer I gave to a question earlier what do you want to do in the supply chain, which I think is an integral supply chain problem, which includes our customers. I mean, they cannot do without supply in the end either. So it's working capital issue, which I think is manageable. I think from a flexibility point of view, we have a lot of cost flexibility here with our variable cost on labor, and it was a lot of variable cost. It is like variable income to our people, which of course when the business goes down that'll go down also.
I don't think there will be a lot of push outs for EUV orders. What our customers are telling us now and when I listened well to them, they're not blind. They see that the impact on GDP will be recessionary and that will very likely have an impact on consumer spending and on the consumer electronics. What they do notice is that the customers of our customers are not blind either, that the demand on the leading edge logic, which includes 5 and 7 nanometer, is still strong. I mean, our customers tell us every time, every week to week that we talk to them, please stay on target with your shipments of your leading edge machines.
Well, if data centers would require 25% less service, which by the way if you think about it, it's probably that it's something very bad has actually happened, because we need more data centric capacity and not less and then that's where the high compute goes. So, I think push out of EUV orders, it can always happen. I don't think it's going to be significant. We're not planning for an Armageddon scenario where the entire world economy crumbles into an abyss, we’re not planning that. I don't think it's got to happen either. I think that there's a low likelihood.
So, all-in-all, I think we’re flexible enough. I think EUV with the key focus on leading edge solutions that our customers’ customers need, is going to be relatively safe and I think reuse of DPV tools, the story of reuse of DPV tools has always been very prominent in every cycle. But you need to realize that when you look at leading edge, it’s not only EUV it’s leading edge DPV, but you need DPV not so much for the geo-medical shrink, you need it for overlay. And that is very important for those new leading edge devices.
So the overlay requirements were an NXE2050, which will be our leading edge immersion tool is significantly different than an 1980, because an 1980 we will not be able to do what a 2050 should be doing, we make sure that they can support our leading edge nodes. So reuse will be limited, it simply has to do with the fact that the requirements that are needed for leading edge nodes for DPV tools are different and they're also more difficult for the older generations to achieve.
Mehdi Hosseini
Peter, going back to the topic of where we go into, I'm still confused. You talked about improving the supply chain. You talked about sequential revenue growth that could exceed 50%, but you're not providing a guide not even for Q2. What is it out there and we're halfway through April. What is it out there that makes you uncomfortable given what you see in the next few months? I'm not asking about the second half, I'm asking about just the Q2 and I have a follow-up.
Peter Wennink
If I fully understand your question, Mehdi, because we always say, well, we have very long lead times in the supply chain, which is true for the critical supplies like, for instance, ZEISS. We have, in the end if you take to also thousands of suppliers, which some of them have lead times which are a lot shorter. We've had delays in EUV in Q1 of a couple of weeks, because one particular supplier couldn't provide rings, that your flow rings, which is not a most advanced part that we need, but if you don't have it, you don't have it. So, this is where our concern comes from. It's the tiered supply chain, which is not always that visible to us.
We have tiered suppliers coming from Malaysia, Mexico, you name it and they are supplying to our 2 and Tier 1 suppliers. And if that supply basically stops then even apart that has a relatively short lead time, doesn't arrive on time and we get a delay. I think ultimately we get those parts, it just a delay. And if we tell you and give you a number and we get a significant delay in some of those short lead time parts, we cannot ship tools and that can be significant. You may remember that a 3500C now is €130 million tool, that's a big number. And I don't want to give you a range from X billion to Y billion, that doesn't make sense. So, this is where it comes from.
And I think it is really based on the experience that we've had in Q1 where we were able to manage it but we did see some delays. And since we cannot judge what the impact will be of these governmental orders in different parts of the world, we cannot assess what that risk is but it's there because we've seen it. We've been able to manage it with a lot of creativity. It doesn't give me any assurance or certainty that we will be able to manage it going forward always. So this is where it comes from.
Mehdi Hosseini
And if you could give us an update on Hermes multi-beam shipment, I think the beta tool was supposed to be shipped to the customer in Q1 and what’s the update there?
Peter Wennink
Yes, I think it was ready. It was in packing and then the shelter in place in the Bay Area, because that's where it comes from, it comes from San Jose, just stopped the tool. So it was a, the trucks were pulling up and they had to return.
Mehdi Hosseini
But do you think the trucks are going to resume their destination in Q2, or they’re going to be more [Multiple Speakers]?
Peter Wennink
I mean, what we are doing now, we are assessing whether we and this particular tool falls under the definition of a critical business. And actually, we're looking into what the possibilities are to actually ship the tool. And I would love to ship the tool ASAP, because it's ready and the customer wants it, so let's see how things go.
Mitch Steves
This is Mitch Steves from RBC. I just had a question on the services business I’m trying to understand it a little better. So I'm guessing you guys are able to do some of this remotely. But can you maybe walk us through how much revenue you guys think will come back, how much revenue you may have lost in Q1 and then how it would work if like we get out of the shelter in place, let’s say earlier. Would that be a lot of pent up demand where you see a snap up, or whether the services business kind of actually get hit and some of the revenues are lost?
Roger Dassen
I think the revenue, Mitch that we lost in Q1 as we mentioned is around 100 million and it's primarily related to certain upgrades. I would say it's not even related to COVID-19, in particular, it was related to the fact that we didn't get sufficient machine time from customers. So that revenue we missed for Q1 will get us in Q2. There's hardly any doubt in my mind we will get that in Q2. And other than that I don't think, as far as we can see right now, we don't see any anomalies so at this stage, still on track for the 3.4 billion in IBM revenue that we talked about in the previous quarter.
As we also mentioned in the video and as Peter talked about in the introduction, we are deploying new technologies. So of course, we're less able than we were in the past to have people go from Veldhoven from Wilton, et cetera and go to the customer locations for obvious reasons before the travel restriction and what have you. But by using artificial, by using virtual reality, augmented reality type technology, we are able to support the huge local support teams that we have with very specialized knowledge that we have at our different hubs. And in that way, so far, we think we're still well positioned to keep up providing the service and the upgrade work that we need to do.
Peter Wennink
One additional comment is more anecdotal that’s actually we were preparing, as a kind of a prototype project somewhere deep in the organization, how can we support remotely through augmented reality and HoloLens’s. Basically, people setting 6,000 kilometers from the actual service action and then we have now over the shoulder 3D augmented reality support that service engineers with six months of training that would normally have to do this after two to three year training were now operating and doing service actions with the support of experts that were sitting 6,000 kilometers away. And basically providing them with 3D images, how they should do the service actions and it works. So, this is also something that amazes also. And actually, our service levels, we keep up all our service levels up in terms of maintenance and servicing of our tools, which I think is a really good achievement.
Achal Sultania
Hi, good morning, it's Credit Suisse. Peter, maybe one question from my side on the services you mentioned that so far you tried to do a lot of remote working and local team assisting to get maintenance and upgrades done. How should we think about the EUV installation part? Do you have teams in place at customer fabs or customer locations to make sure that EUV installation can still go ahead as per plan at least during Q2, if the restrictions are not lifted?
Peter Wennink
Yes, that's a very good question. Luckily, we have three main sites where we do EUV and that's also the sites where we have most of our service engineers. I mean, we have to think of thousands plus. So there is lot of experience there. And this is exactly where this remote support comes in. We do send people across the globe but that's where we have hundreds of people, hundreds of people traveling. It's now probably not more than 50, 60. They have to go into two weeks of quarantine. They have to get special travel visa. So we need to plan and prepare this much more rigorously than we did in the past. And this is where we do set experts. But I think a lot of these service actions that are not of the really top notch expert level are being trained and being done with the kind of novel remote support technologies that I just mentioned. So it's a combination of both, and I think we'll be able to do all the installations. We've been able to actually do that and we are. So, yes, we still do travel. It's not if it goes back to CRO, but it's a fraction of what we were able to do, but it works.
Achal Sultania
And maybe one follow-up for Roger. Roger, on the services side you mentioned 3.4 billion is still in sight for the full year. Can you help us understand like how much of that, within that will be EUV specifically and also how much of losses for EUV services can we expect? I know you mentioned breakeven, hopefully, by the end of the year. Because the thing that I'm trying to understand is how much of a drag on services gross margin has EUV been last year or maybe this year, just to help us get to what the number should be going forward.
Roger Dassen
Yes, let me be very, very short on that. So for this year, I think quarter-over-quarter what -- so if you if you compare the last quarter, so Q4 to today, that would probably account for 0.5% in gross margin. So the improvement in EUV this year is going to account for about 0.5% in gross margin for the year. So that's an answer to that question. In general, if you look at the 3.4, it's about 50, 50 in terms of regular service and maintenance if you like and upgrades and the regular service and maintenance, EUV is still fairly small number, given of course the install base for DPV is so much larger, but the impact on the gross margin percentage about 0.5%.
Skip Miller
All right, we have time for one last question. If you were unable to get through on this call and still have questions, please feel free to contact the ASML investor relations department with your question. Now, operator, may we have the last caller please?
Operator
And our last question is from Mr. Andrew Gardiner. Please state your company name followed by your question.
Andrew Gardiner
It's Andrew from Barclays. Thanks for squeezing me in here at the end. Just a follow-up really on the comments you guys have been making on the memory tool utilization. Peter, you said you've seen it improve sort of from late fourth quarter into first quarter and just out this quarter. I'm just wondering how much flex do you think the industry still has to continue to grow bit output by raising utilization and when are they going to get close to full utilization, again based on the current trends? Obviously, I know we've got the global caveats, but just if trends were to continue. How close are we to that full utilization where they need to start adding capacity again?
Peter Wennink
I mean, I think that will be this quarter. When I look at the trend, it’s going to be -- it's pretty close. They still have a bit of under-utilization to go but it will be this quarter
Skip Miller
Thank you. Now on behalf of ASML, I would like to thank you all for joining us today. Operator, if you could formally conclude the call, I'd appreciate it. Thank you.
