来源：人民币交易与研究
美联储历史上最伟大的主席之一、有金融“巨人”之称的保罗·沃克(Paul Volcker)于美东时间12月9日逝世，享年92岁。对于如今的美国人而言，通货膨胀似乎是一个遥不可及的概念。但在一个由货币构筑的金融世界里，通货膨胀的风险从未远离，也因此保罗·沃克给我们留下的遗产----一个不畏压力、坚守原则的独立央行就显得尤为珍贵。近日，乔治梅森大学Mercatus中心的货币政策计划主任、美国经济学家斯科特·萨姆纳(Scott Sumner)发文回顾了保罗·沃克在“大通胀”战场上留下的“光辉战绩”以及给后人的经验教训，即为了控制通胀，美联储有时需要容忍利率的大幅变动。
本周去世的保罗·沃克于1979年8月被任命为美联储主席，这是美国经济史上的一个关键时刻。他的任期（灵活性和刚毅的独特结合）是一个值得我们铭记的任期。
Paul Volcker, who passed away this week, was appointed to chair the Federal Reserve in August 1979, a pivotal moment in American economic history. His tenure – a unique blend of adaptability and fortitude – is one worth remembering.
当时，通胀率已升至两位数水平，公众对美元的价值失去了信心。诸如黄金、收藏品和艺术品等通胀对冲工具的价值急剧上升。由于债权人试图保护自己不受其出借的资金购买力下降的影响，利率上升到15%以上。
At the time, inflation had risen to double-digit levels and the public had lost confidence in the value of the U.S. dollar. Inflation hedges such as gold, collectables and art were increasing dramatically in value. Interest rates rose to over 15 percent as creditors sought to protect themselves from the loss in purchasing power of the money they lent out.
经济学教科书有时将1966-81年的大通胀描述为一种供给侧现象。但实际情况并非如此，1971年至1981年间，名义总支出每年飙升约11%。这一激增导致了大约8%的年通胀和3%的实际GDP增长。如果名义GDP以每年5%的速度增长，我们在此期间就会有大约2%的通胀和3%的实际GDP增长。
Economics textbooks sometimes portray the Great Inflation of 1966-81 as a supply side phenomenon. This is not the case, as total nominal spending (GDP) soared by roughly 11 percent per year between 1971 and 1981. This surge resulted in roughly 8 percent annual inflation and 3 percent real GDP growth. Had nominal GDP risen at a 5 percent annual rate, we would have had roughly 2 percent inflation and the same 3 percent real GDP growth during this period.
问题很简单：美联储印了太多的钱，导致了太多的支出。当利率高于零时，货币供应量的迅速增加通常会导致通货膨胀。
The problem was simple: too much spending caused by the Fed printing too much money. When interest rates are above zero, a rapid increase in the money supply is generally quite inflationary.
卡特总统之所以选择保罗·沃克担任美联储主席，是因为他有“通胀鹰派”之称，他愿意实施紧缩的货币政策，尽管这在某种程度上不受欢迎。沃克上任后，迅速促使美联储大幅提高利率。
President Carter picked Paul Volcker to chair the Fed because of his reputation as an “inflation hawk,” someone willing to conduct a contractionary monetary policy, even if it were somewhat unpopular. After taking office, Volcker quickly got the Fed to push interest rates much higher.
1980年初，经济急剧下滑。美联储随后降低了利率，经济在下半年迅速恢复。不幸的是，直到1981年初，通货膨胀仍保持在两位数的水平。由于大通胀被视为20世纪中叶凯恩斯主义经济政策过度刺激消费的结果，沃克开始考虑由米尔顿•弗里德曼(Milton Friedman)等货币主义者提出的替代方案。
In early 1980, the economy fell into a sharp downturn. The Fed then reduced interest rates, and the economy snapped back in the second half of the year. Unfortunately, inflation remained at double-digit levels into early 1981. Because the Great Inflation was seen as partly resulting from mid-20th Century Keynesian economic policies that had overstimulated spending, Volcker began considering alternative ideas being promoted by monetarists such as Milton Friedman.
沃克没有依靠利率目标制等凯恩斯主义政策，而是让美联储直接降低货币供应量的增长率，让利率达到市场力量所要求的水平。到1981年初，主要银行贷款利率达到了20%。经济再次陷入衰退，失业率在1982年底达到战后最高点10.8%。
Instead of relying on Keynesian policies such as interest rate targeting, Volcker had the Fed directly reduce the growth rate of the money supply, and let interest rates go as high as market forces dictated. By early 1981, the prime bank lending rate reached 20 percent. Once again, the economy fell into recession, with unemployment reaching a postwar high of 10.8 percent in late 1982.
但这一次，美联储继续实施限制性货币政策，直到通胀率降至约4%，并在上世纪80年代的剩余时间里一直保持这一水平。尽管里根政府早期实施了大规模的财政刺激(减税和国防开支)，许多权威人士错误地认为这将导致更高的通货膨胀，但这场对两位数通货膨胀的胜利还是出现了。
But this time, the Fed continued with its restrictive monetary policies until inflation fell to roughly 4 percent, where it remained throughout the remainder of the 1980s. This victory over double-digit inflation occurred despite a big fiscal stimulus (tax cuts and defense spending) during the early years of the Reagan administration, which many pundits wrongly expected would lead to higher inflation.
沃克在美联储的任期不仅代表了一场决策革命，也改变了经济学家对经济的看法。在沃克之前，人们普遍认为通胀是由特定的“冲击”造成的，比如工会的工资要求、农作物歉收、预算赤字、医疗费用和石油短缺。相对较少的经济学家认为货币政策是罪魁祸首。
Volcker’s tenure at the Fed didn’t just represent a revolution in policymaking, it also changed the way economists thought about the economy. Prior to Volcker, it was widely assumed that inflation was caused by specific “shocks” such as union wage demands, crop failures, budget deficits, medical costs and oil shortages. Relatively few economists believed that monetary policy was the culprit.
在沃克之后，大多数经济学家接受了这样的观点，即美联储有责任保持低通胀率和相对稳定。这就产生了“通胀目标”的想法，并在2012年正式确立了2%的通胀目标，尽管美联储早在几十年前就非正式地采纳了这一想法。
After Volcker, most economists accepted the idea that the Fed was responsible for keeping the rate of inflation low and relatively stable. This led to the idea of “inflation targeting,” which was formalized with an explicit 2 percent inflation target in 2012, although the Fed had already informally adopted the idea several decades earlier.
如今，沃尔克时代的真知灼见可能会消失，这是一个切实的危险。越来越多的经济学家支持使用财政政策来稳定经济，尽管有大量证据表明货币政策要有效得多。沃克通过控制货币供应来降低通货膨胀，而美联储最近的政策正在转回强调对利率的控制。但大通胀的一个原因是对利率目标的滥用，未能认识到高利率并不一定意味着货币紧缩。利率通常反映的是经济状况，而不是货币政策。
Today, there is a real danger that the insights of the Volcker era will be lost. An increasing number of economists favor the use of fiscal policy to stabilize the economy, despite abundant evidence that monetary policy is far more effective. Volcker brought inflation down by getting the money supply under control, whereas recent Fed policy is moving back toward emphasizing control of interest rates. But one cause of the Great Inflation was the misuse of interest rate targeting — the failure to recognize that high interest rates do not necessarily represent tight money. Interest rates often reflect the condition of the economy, not monetary policy.
沃克告诉我们，为了控制通胀，美联储有时需要容忍利率的大幅变动。未来的美联储官员是否也愿意在必要时大幅调整利率，以稳定经济?美联储在2007年和2008年没有足够快地降低利率。
Volcker showed that there were times when the Fed needed to tolerate major shifts in interest rates in order to get inflation under control. Will future Fed officials also be willing to allow dramatic adjustments in interest rates, if necessary, to stabilize the economy? The Fed did not reduce interest rates quickly enough in 2007 and 2008.
希望他们已经从一个懂得如何面对困难的人身上吸取了一个经验。
Let’s hope that they’ve learned a lesson from a man who knew how to take the difficult course.（完）
