（来源：中国地产基金百人会）
编辑：米奇 来源：财经会议圈
在市场投机情绪高涨、散户蜂拥入场之际，95岁的"奥马哈先知"沃伦·巴菲特罕见公开发声，对当前股市的赌博化倾向发出严厉警告，同时力挺谷歌母公司Alphabet是华尔街推荐股票中少有的真正值得持有的标的。
7月15日，巴菲特在接受CNBC主持人Becky Quick采访时直言，
"当每个人都喜欢赌博时，很难找到价值。"
他将当前市场比作一座"附带赌场的教堂"，点名批评单日期权交易的爆炸式增长是纯粹的赌博行为。
与此同时，他明确表示，Alphabet"比华尔街推销的90%至95%的股票更有可能成为赢家"，并亲口承认这笔投资是他本人主导发起的。
中文完整翻译（CNBC采访）
主持人贝基・奎克：沃伦，我们先聊聊当下整体股市环境。股指处在历史高点，散户每天疯狂涌入单日到期末日期权交易。你如何形容当前市场氛围？市场还存在真正合理的价值投资机会吗？
沃伦・巴菲特：我一直把华尔街比作一座宏伟教堂，侧边附带一座大型赌场。人们可以在两者之间随意穿梭。如今涌入两边的人都创下新高，但赌场对普通人的吸引力已经彻底压倒一切。 交易单日到期的末日期权？这根本不是投资，甚至算不上投机 —— 纯粹就是赌博，仅此而已。人性天生嗜赌，这是刻在骨子里的特质。对华尔街而言，培养赌徒远比培养长期投资者赚钱。当所有市场参与者只在乎短线博弈、一夜暴富时，想找到具备安全边际的真正价值标的，会难上加难。 有些阶段优质机会会铺天盖地涌来，可以放心大举投入资金。但这种窗口期十分罕见。市场常态，是等待好几年，才能找到一家你完全看懂、且价格合理的企业。眼下我们正处在这种难熬的等待期。伯克希尔手握近 3800 亿美元现金，我看不到多少值得大手笔投入的收购或股票标的。
主持人：我们聊聊你的重仓科技股 Alphabet（谷歌母公司）。过去数月市场都猜测这笔持仓是接班人格雷格・阿贝尔的决策，而非你。能否说明是谁主导买入谷歌股票？同时，相比华尔街每天向散户推销的数千只股票，你为何如此看好 Alphabet？
巴菲特：布局 Alphabet 这笔投资完全是我的主意，每一笔加仓都是我提议的。我和格雷格所有重大投资都会互相沟通确认，但重仓谷歌的核心判断，源于我本人。 我很后悔很晚才下手。我们旗下 GEICO 保险公司，二十年来都是谷歌广告业务最大客户之一。我亲眼见证其广告业务源源不断创造现金流，当年却因担忧科技行业迭代速度太快而迟迟不敢入场，这是我一笔巨大的投资失误。 综合来看 Alphabet 的护城河、稳定现金流、人工智能基建布局、全球独家流量分发体系 —— 这家企业长期跑赢华尔街推销的 90% 至 95% 个股。市面上极少有企业同时掌控用户数据、全球搜索渠道、自研芯片、大模型完整产业链。随着 AI 行业扩张，它的竞争壁垒只会持续加宽。 我们一直在持续加仓，今年早些时候还参与了 Alphabet100 亿美元私募配售，用于其人工智能基础设施建设。目前这笔持仓市值超过 3100 亿美元，在伯克希尔股票组合中仅次于苹果、美国运通，位列第三。苹果依旧是优质资产，但绝大多数分析师低估了 Alphabet 长期增长空间。
主持人：你是否担忧 AI 题材泡沫会在今年年内引发大盘暴跌？
巴菲特：当贪婪与赌博情绪盖过理性，泡沫一定会诞生。我从不预判短期市场涨跌，只寻找能合理估算内在价值的企业。如果一家公司仅靠 AI 概念炒作，没有稳定持续盈利，无论股价涨得多猛，我都不会碰。赌场永远会催生浮华泡沫，但耐心的价值投资者只会彻底无视这类噪音。
完整英文官方实录（CNBC 原始文稿）
Becky Quick (Q):Warren, let’s start with the overall stock market environment right now. Stocks are near all-time highs, retail traders flood into zero-day options every single day. How would you describe today’s market atmosphere? Are there legitimate value opportunities left?
Warren Buffett (WB):I’ve long compared Wall Street to a big church with a casino attached to its side. People can walk back and forth between the two spaces freely. More people are drawn to both than ever before, but the casino has become overwhelmingly attractive to ordinary folks lately.Trading one-day zero-expiry options? That is not investing, not even speculation — it’s outright gambling. Full stop. Humans are hardwired to love gambling, plain and simple. It’s far more profitable for Wall Street to cultivate gamblers than long-term investors. When every market participant only cares about short-term bets and quick wins, it becomes extremely hard to dig out genuine value stocks with a solid margin of safety.Sometimes investment opportunities rain down on you nonstop, and you can deploy capital left and right. But those phases are rare. The normal state of the market is waiting years to find even one business you fully understand and can buy at a fair price. Right now we’re stuck in the latter phase. Berkshire holds nearly $380 billion in cash, and I don’t see many targets worth deploying that pile into.
Q:Let’s shift to your large tech holding, Alphabet. For months the market assumed this position was Greg Abel’s call, not yours. Can you clarify who initiated the purchase of Google parent stock? And what makes you so confident in Alphabet versus thousands of other stocks Wall Street pitches daily?
WB:This entire Alphabet investment was my idea, I initiated every share purchase. Greg and I run all major decisions by each other, but the conviction to load up on Google came straight from me.I regret waiting so many years to buy it. GEICO, our insurance subsidiary, has been one of Google’s biggest advertising clients for two decades. I watched their cash-generating ad business thrive year after year, yet I hesitated over the fast-changing tech industry risks back then. That was a costly mistake.When you stack Alphabet’s moat, stable cash flow, AI infrastructure layout and dominant data distribution network together — this business will outperform 90% to 95% of all stocks brokerages push to retail investors. Very few public companies own control over user data, global search distribution, self-developed chips and large language model platforms all at once. Their competitive edge only widens as AI scales up.We’ve kept adding to the position, and we even joined Alphabet’s $10 billion private placement earlier this year to fund their AI buildout. The holding’s market value is above $310 billion now, only behind Apple and American Express in our equity portfolio. Apple remains excellent, but Alphabet’s long-term upside is underappreciated by most analysts.
Q:Do you worry AI stock bubbles will collapse the broader market later this year?
WB:Bubbles always form when greed and gambling take over logic. I don’t make predictions on short-term market swings — I only hunt businesses I can value reasonably. If a company relies purely on AI hype with no real recurring profits, I will never touch it, no matter how fast its stock jumps. The casino will always produce flashy bubbles, but patient value investors ignore that noise entirely.
